ANSD : Measuring the economic impact of the Syrian crisis

SUN 24 - 11 - 2024

Date: May 30, 2018
Source: The Daily Star

Measuring the economic impact of the Syrian crisis

Rubina Abu Zeinab-Chahine

Everyone agrees conflicts impose enormous costs on economies. However, measurable estimates of these costs are difficult to reach. The Syrian crisis, which led economies to decline and regional economic ties to break, has changed the region in various ways, but precise assessments of its economic impact on Syria and its neighbors remains unclear.The protracted nature of the crisis makes evaluations of its economic impact very difficult. Many assumptions have been made due to the absence of reliable data. Consequently, and according to the World Bank publication released in August 2017, “any estimate of the cost of the Syrian crisis on neighboring host communities or the impact on the economy has to be treated as a point estimate with a very wide error band.”

Data plays a vital role in enhancing the impact of development and humanitarian aid across the globe. However, the data landscape is always changing. Thus, new methods to address data gaps are essential for developing efficient policy recommendations.

Most of the time, governments and development actors are sidelined because of deficiencies in capacities, resources, knowledge, and more specifically, a lack of data. Access to data and information on the right things at the right time, and the capacity to utilize it properly promotes many developmental initiatives. It is very difficult to design, monitor and evaluate effective policies when high quality data is absent.

The crisis in Syria has caused a large influx of refugees into Lebanon. In terms of refugees per capita, various international data concur that Lebanon has the highest rate in the world.

The Lebanese government estimates the total number of Syrian refuges as high as 1.5 million individuals which accounts to approximately 30 percent increase in Lebanon’s population.

A significant amount of support has been channeled into Lebanon to assist the country in hosting the Syrian refugees. Yet the country has still fallen under deep stress as institutions and services are burdened with the mounting demands of the growing population.

In an attempt to support ensuring effective and accurate targeting of interventions, INFOPRO last week released a book on the “Economic Impact of the Syrian Crisis on Lebanon” providing detailed assessments that aim to better understand the context and challenges of host communities, and to assist in the prioritization of humanitarian aid and host community support programs.

The book tries to quantify both the direct and indirect economic effects of the Syrian crisis and refugees’ influx on Lebanon providing estimates of the economic costs of the influx, across different sectors. It is designed to inform policymakers, scholars, and the general public about the burden of the Syrian crisis on Lebanon.

This book is divided into two sections. The first section includes a summary overview, a list of mitigation measures, a discussion on the numbers of Syrian refugees, and their demographic profile. the second section is an in-depth report on each economic sector affected by the Syrian crisis.

Its findings include results from desktop review and primary data collection undertaken across different sectors. It covers dozens of international and local reports and a wide range of studies, commissioned by various international organizations since 2011. It compiles and compares data with insights from the economics literature to estimate the economic impact in ten key sectors: labor market, trade, banking, tourism, real estate, health, education, electricity, solid waste and water supply and sanitation.

The book stresses the different methodologies, angles and focuses used by the different publications and studies on the effects of the Syrian crisis. The analysis of the data it provides could be used to refine some important parts of policy debate ensuring that this debate is informed by evidence, which helps in providing a clear perspective on complex issues.

The book, is another useful tool by INFOPRO to policy-makers, businesses and the international community working on humanitarian and development opportunities across social and economic fronts. This work is carried out to inform the identification and prioritization of investments and interventions that will contribute to a better coordination of humanitarian and development initiatives.

Seven years after the war in Syria has started, Ramzi El Hafez, publisher and editor-in-chief, has taken the lead, this time on the challenge of completeness, accuracy and usability of existing data, trying to determine the required, but not readily available, data or analyses; gathering and analyzing research in order to improve the current situation.

This work is a benchmark in development work in Lebanon providing innovative approaches in the area of data collection, interpretation, analysis, and dissemination, providing policymakers and development designers with data not to be overlooked.

_{Rubina Abu Zeinab-Chahine is Executive Director at the Hariri Foundation for Sustainable Human Development.

A version of this article appeared in the print edition of The Daily Star on May 30, 2018, on page 3.}

The views and opinions of authors expressed herein do not necessarily state or reflect those of the Arab Network for the Study of Democracy

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