The regime in Amman may not have been paying attention.
Set in the transparently false eye-of-the-storm tranquility of the royal palace, Jordan’s ruling family could conceivably – if extreme benefit of the doubt is applied – have failed to notice the gravity of the maelstrom threatening to consume it.

It certainly hasn’t been listening. As successive Jordanian governments have failed to address the rampant social and economic hardships suffered by its people, the ruling family has also, if current evidence is anything to go by, failed to heed the mistakes made by other Arab patriarchs.

The decades of ignoring discreet and indiscreet cries for change from its people seem to have insulated the regime from reality, in much the same way as Mubarak and Ben Ali couldn’t have countenanced being swept from power by a population subservient for so long.

Replacing discredited administration heads with military strongmen has not proved the most palliative of moves in other states, so the royal family has no reason to rest easy in the belief it has responded to protesters’ demands.

 
Jordan, with its almost 70 percent Palestinian population, proximity to an irritable and unpredictable Israel and adjacency to volatile Iraq and Syria, is an almost uniquely capricious state. But recent protests, some of which have turned extremely violent, don’t seem to have colored King Abdullah’s political outlook. He of all rulers, presiding over a divided and clearly discontented people, should not feel immune to Arab Spring contagion.

And yet the lessons from the growing list of countries turned on their head by popular demonstrations are extremely easy to grasp: Take the people seriously, for it is they who hold the power; it should no longer be assumed that conspiracy theory talk will be swallowed; oppression and the indiscriminate use of force will not cow the masses; the only solution is to listen to demands and act.

The calls for reform are not coming from just one sector of society. Diverse groups, with admittedly diverse agendas, are demanding change and are going about it in a largely homogenous, protest-driven way. If the regime genuinely believes its own bombast about foreign powers with ulterior motives exploiting underlying discontent, how better to expunge such sinister forces than placating an incandescent citizenry? Remove the causes of unrest, and the capacity for external elements to exploit the situation follows. From a practical viewpoint, reform should be the stone that kill two birds.

The situation is still salvageable, but Jordan’s royal family needs to stop talking and start listening. Failure to do so will result in the cruelest of lessons.