Monday, April 04, 2011

Moammar Gadhafi has always depended on one strategic resource to hold his loopy government together, and that’s cash. But as the U.N.-backed coalition tightens its squeeze, Gadhafi is slowly running out of money – and his inner circle is showing early signs of collapse. 

White House officials described a pressure campaign that is seizing Gadhafi’s assets, pounding his military and establishing covert links with both the rebels and members of his government. As this chokehold tightens, U.S. officials believe Gadhafi’s regime is likely to implode around him, or he’ll be forced to flee. 

This Libya strategy is based on hopes and expectations, rather than a detailed endgame. And in that sense, it still lacks the kind of strategic clarity President Barack Obama’s critics would like to see. But compared with the other unpredictable tempests swirling through the Middle East – in Syria and Yemen, especially – this one at least seems to be heading in the right direction. 

The clearest sign that the squeeze is working was the defection Wednesday of Moussa Koussa, Libya’s foreign minister and longtime intelligence chief for Gadhafi. He fled to the U.K., after what an intelligence source said was a ruse in which Koussa claimed to be heading to Tunisia to make a secret sale of refined oil products. The cover story illustrates Gadhafi’s desperate need for funds. 

U.S. officials say many others in the Gadhafi entourage have been in recent contact with the United States or its allies. These include the current intelligence chief, Abdullah al-Senussi, who helped safeguard the evacuation of the U.S. Embassy in Tripoli in February, and other Cabinet ministers. The U.S. has also had indirect contact with members of Gadhafi’s family, who are said to be unhappy with events and looking for a way out. 

With Koussa’s flight, the trickle of defections may turn into a flood. Ali Abdul Salam al-Triki, a former foreign minister, fled to Egypt on Thursday. One other key Cabinet official was said to be negotiating the details of his departure. “I belong to you now, tell me what to do,” this Cabinet member is said to have told an intermediary. 

The CIA is sending covert teams into Libya to help undermine Gadhafi further. At present there are only several dozen operatives, including full-time case officers from the Special Activities Division, which manages covert actions, supplemented by former officers, known internally as “cadres,” who are on direct contract to the agency. Their tasks include providing clandestine communications links to the opposition, contacting and assessing the rebels, and providing money and other assistance to Libyans to break with Gadhafi. 

The intelligence teams may also assist NATO forces in targeting remaining nodes of Gadhafi’s military, such as ammunition dumps, command-and-control centers, and tanks and armor. A coordinated air assault is said to have obliterated a Libyan tank column on the highway near Gadhafi’s hometown of Sirte Wednesday. The agency has some experience in Libya thanks to previous covert actions there, including one code-named “Sprint” some years ago. 

An unpleasant but necessary task ahead is providing alternative sources of money to the tribal leaders Gadhafi has bribed over the 40 years of his rule, including those of his own tribe, the Gadhafah. If this can be done, the leader’s last strong pillars of support will fall. 

A measure of Libya’s inherent weakness came from Koussa himself, who is said to have told CIA officers several years ago, after the ouster of Saddam Hussein, how much more vulnerable Libya was to attack. “We are a [expletive] beach!” he supposedly remarked.

As in Iraq, the real challenge in Libya will be assembling a stable successor government. U.S. officials expect that this time, the operation will be overseen by the U.N. and its special representative for Libya, Abdulillah Khatib, a Jordanian diplomat. His immediate task is to coordinate contacts between the rebels and the regime. Arab cover is also coming from Qatar, which will host the next meeting of the “contact group” that is overseeing the anti-Gadhafi operation. 

A lot of things could still go wrong. When backed into corners in the past, Gadhafi has used terrorism to fight back. He is said to have chemical weapons and perhaps other unconventional tools. But his machine needs cash, and an intelligence source said his bankroll will last him another two to three months, at most. From this financial perspective, Gadhafi could be described as a dictator in liquidation. 

Syndicated columnist David Ignatius is published twice weekly by THE DAILY STAR.