Michael Young

Whatever happens to Sleiman Franjieh’s presidential fortunes, the Maronite political leadership should not embarrass itself.

Time and again Maronite politicians have bewailed the condition of their community and ululated about their marginalization – only, thanks to their endless rivalries, to do far more harm to their coreligionists. Michel Aoun and Samir Geagea, the architects of the Maronite suicide in 1989, remain influential and today both are resisting a Franjieh presidency.

Not that Franjieh is a paragon of Maronite aspirations. There is little doubt that his election would be a momentary victory for Hezbollah and Syria, even if this merits a somewhat closer look. There are many Maronites, on either side of the political divide, just as good if not better than he is. Yet the condition of Lebanon in general and of the Maronites in particular tell us why the northern politician has suddenly become acceptable.

The reality is that the regional powers, above all Iran and Saudi Arabia, as well as the United States, France and others have grown increasingly alarmed with the disintegration of the Lebanese state during the past six months. Lebanon was heading toward total collapse – political, social and economic – minus a president and a functioning government and Parliament. With nearly a million and a half Syrian refugees in the country and jihadis knocking at the door, Lebanon became a time bomb, one that if it exploded would have created a nightmare similar to Syria’s.

For reasons that are self-evident the situation had to be brought to a rapid end, and everyone was in agreement over this. If the solution was a Franjieh-Saad Hariri-Hezbollah accord, then all the better. Aoun and Geagea can oppose it, but it is highly unlikely that they can stop it. They have neither the votes in Parliament to do so, nor would their absence from the election session, if all other parties attend, prevent a quorum. The regional and international powers want Franjieh, so he will likely come.

What we are seeing now is an effort both by Hezbollah and Hariri to preserve their alliances, as they try to persuade their Christian partners to accept a deal more or less concluded. Reportedly, Geagea will travel to Saudi Arabia, while we can probably expect a meeting soon between Aoun and Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah. As Aoun and Geagea consider what to do next, their best option is to see what they can get in exchange for endorsing Franjieh.

This will not appease Aoun, who sees his ambitions thwarted yet again. The general has only himself to blame. He has pursued a reckless strategy, while unnecessarily alienating the Sunnis and their Saudi backers, who have vetoed him. Worse, he has contributed grandly to Lebanon’s ruin, perpetuating a void in order to blackmail Parliament into electing him as president.

Hezbollah used Aoun to get what it wanted. The party’s manipulation of the political vacuum, giving hope to Aoun only to ensure that he would continue to block the system, was clever. Had the general any memory, he might have recalled that Hezbollah did something similar once before, in the run-up to Michel Sleiman’s election in May 2008. “Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me,” Aoun must be thinking.

What of Franjieh himself? All those saying he is Bashar Assad’s friend and Hezbollah’s ally are correct. But recall that when Sleiman was backed by Hariri in 2007, he too was regarded as Syria’s man. However, the presidency imposes on people different behavior than the one they adopted when navigating pettier political byways.

That’s hardly to say that Franjieh will blossom into a Camille Chamoun or a Fouad Chehab, nor does the presidency today facilitate such a metamorphosis. But it is to say that he will find it impossible to govern against one of the major communities, especially the Sunnis. Hezbollah’s satisfaction may diminish once it sees that Franjieh will be very reluctant to accept policies that do not enjoy widespread approval. No Maronite president has ever willingly become reliant on one faction in the country against the others. Those who did, including Sleiman Franjieh the elder, saw their presidencies undermined as a consequence.

Maronite Patriarch Beshara Rai has been relatively quiet in recent weeks. There was a time when the man would talk about everything without invitation, yet now, at a crucial moment for his community, he is mute. Understandably, Rai hesitates to wade into the treacherous waters of Maronite disputation. But the patriarch Tuesday pledged he would seek a consensus, and he will have no choice, once he sees an alignment of regional and international opinion behind Franjieh, but to bless his election.

Aoun and Geagea should pause and reflect. The imposition of a Maronite candidate from outside was always avoidable. Had the Maronites agreed among themselves on a figure, they could have had him elected. Instead, they either tried to promote themselves or block the other. The result is that both may soon be out of the game, even as the Maronites will complain that it’s always the Muslims who end up choosing the head of state.

That’s why the prevailing Maronite vision today of greater communal isolation is so problematic. For the community to retain a say in Lebanon, it must return to the principles of the National Pact and the consociational system. The successful Maronite candidates will be the ones who can patiently build unanimity around themselves, while remembering that the constitutional role of the presidency is to embody national unity.

Maronites must rally around Franjieh if he is the anointed one, to ensure that he remains true to this role. They must also measure the risks of rejecting a compromise. Rai should bring that message home. For once, we’re eager to hear him speak.