Richard N. Haass

After 60 days of intense debate in Washington, D.C., and conceivably Tehran, the “Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action,” signed on July 14 by Iran and the U.N. Security Council’s five permanent members plus Germany (the P5+1), will probably enter into force.

But no one should confuse this outcome with a solution to the problem of Iran’s nuclear ambitions or its contributions to the ongoing turmoil in the Middle East. On the contrary, depending on how it is implemented and enforced, the agreement could make matters worse.

This is not to suggest the JCPOA makes no contribution. It places a ceiling for the next decade on the quantity and quality of centrifuges Iran is allowed to operate, allowing it to possess only a small amount of low-enriched uranium for the next 15 years. The agreement also establishes, in President Barack Obama’s words, a “where necessary, when necessary” inspections mechanism that potential can verify whether Iran is meeting these and other commitments.

The net result is that the accord should lengthen the period it would take Iran to produce one or more nuclear weapons from several months to as much as a year, making it more likely that such an effort would be discovered in time. The prospect that the JCPOA could keep Iran without nuclear weapons for 15 years is its main attraction. Sanctions alone could not have accomplished this, and using military force would have entailed considerable risk with uncertain results.

On the other hand (there always is another hand in diplomacy), the agreement permits Iran to keep far more nuclear-related capacity than it would need were it interested only in civil research and in demonstrating a symbolic ability to enrich uranium. The agreement also provides Iran with extensive relief from economic sanctions, which will fuel the regime’s ability to support dangerous proxies throughout the Middle East, back a sectarian government in Baghdad, and prop up Syrian President Bashar Assad.

Moreover, the accord does not rule out all nuclear-related research and does not constrain work on missiles. Sales of ballistic missiles and missile parts to Iran are banned for no more than eight years. Sales of conventional arms to Iran are prohibited for no more than five years.

There is also the danger that Iran will fail to comply with parts of the agreement and undertake prohibited work. Given its record, this has understandably been the focus of much concern and criticism regarding the pact. What matters is that noncompliance be met with renewed sanctions and, if needed, force.

A bigger problem has received much less attention: the risk of what will happen if Iran does comply with the agreement. Without violating the accord, Iran can position itself to break out of nuclear constraints when the agreement’s critical provisions expire. At that point, there will be little to hold it back except the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, a voluntary agreement that does not include penalties for noncompliance.

It is important that the United States (ideally, joined by other countries) let Iran know that action to put itself in a position to field nuclear weapons after 15 years, though not explicitly precluded by the accord, will not be tolerated. Harsh sanctions should be reintroduced at the first sign that Iran is preparing a post-JCPOA breakout; this, too, is not precluded by the accord.

Iran should likewise be informed that the U.S. and its allies would undertake a preventive military strike if it appeared to try presenting the world with a fait accompli. The world erred in allowing North Korea to pass the nuclear-weapons threshold; it should not repeat the same mistake.

Meanwhile, a major effort must be launched to assuage the concerns of Iran’s neighbors, several of which will be tempted to hedge their bets against Iran’s potential breakout in 15 years by pursuing nuclear programs of their own. The Middle East is already nightmarish enough without the added risks posed by would-be nuclear powers. Obama’s claim that the agreement has “stopped the spread of nuclear weapons in this region” is premature, at best.

It will also be essential to rebuild strategic trust between the U.S. and Israel; indeed, this will need to be a high priority for Obama’s successor. And the U.S. should push back as warranted against Iran’s foreign policy or treatment of its own people.

None of this rules out selective cooperation with Iran, be it in Afghanistan, Syria or Iraq, if interests overlap. 

But here, too, realism should prevail. The notion that the nuclear agreement will lead Iran to moderate its radicalism and rein in its strategic ambitions should not be anyone’s baseline scenario. In fact, the emergence of a more capable Iran, not a transformed one, is likely to be a main challenge confronting the Middle East, if not the world, in the coming years.

Richard N. Haass is president of the Council on Foreign Relations. THE DAILY STAR publishes this commentary in collaboration with Project Syndicate © (www.project syndicate.org).