The Daily Star Editorial

Predicting the course of Syria’s months-long unrest has been one for the pessimists. Time and again Syrian President Bashar Assad has voiced his readiness to reform and improve democracy in his country; time and again disappointment has followed.

The Arab League’s decision over the weekend to suspend Syria from attending its meetings have raised eyebrows – it is the harshest rebuke from the organization to date – but it is unlikely to raise hopes.

When the Arab League’s plan for ending the turmoil in Syria was unveiled earlier this month, skeptics were numerous. Why would Assad’s administration agree to certain parts of the initiative, such as releasing political prisoners and allowing international media access to restive hotspots, when such action would expose to the world the very crimes it has spent most of 2011 trying to keep hidden?

The argument at the time was that by setting a deadline of two weeks for the regime to fall in line, the Syrian authorities had simply been gifted more time to continue killings. With almost 200 additional deaths since the initiative’s outline, it appears the pessimists were right once again.

The current reality on the ground in Syria is one of stalemate. Authorities are not likely to implement actions that will precipitate their demise. Pro-democracy protesters are not about to cave in, not after all the bloodshed and all the expressions of international support they have sustained and received. The international community has made clear that it will not directly interfere with Syria the way it did in Libya. The economy, heaving under the weight of various sanctions, will likely continue its slow demise and exacerbate poverty among Syria’s already numerous poor.
And judging by past experience, the Arab League plan is not going to be implemented by powerbrokers in Damascus.

Deadlines, just like condemnations and sanctions, do not appear to register in the consciousness of Assad or those around him. It is high time a robust demand is issued with the threat of reprise should that demand fail to be met.
If the multilayer approach of the Arab League has proven too unpalatable for the administration, simplify: Syria has to be made to stop the killing.

Doubtless, the move by the Arab League over the weekend will have some nominal effect on the solidity of the Syrian government. It has left it as regionally isolated as it has ever been and pulls the rug from underneath previously supportive superpowers such as Russia and China. But it is hardly likely to be anything close to sufficient.
After all the brutality and broken promises, the rapidly approaching deadline set by the Arab League is not cause to be optimistic on Syria. Seven months of appalling wrongs are unlikely to be righted in four days.