Shane Farrell and Nadine Elali

Joseph Stalin once famously remarked, “One death is a tragedy; one million is a statistic.” But he needn’t have gone to that scale. Deaths become statistics once the figure is too large to visualize, too grand to empathize. This is the real tragedy.

When describing events in Syria today, journalists talk of the vast numbers of dead, not of the individuals who were killed. Back in May, the world was shocked by the case of Hamza al-Khatib, the 13-year-old boy who was tortured to death by forces loyal to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, the gruesome image of his punctured body plastered across screens and newspapers. Now, according to the Strategic Research and Communication Center, more children (including babies) have been killed—267 more Hamza al-Khatibs.

The Syrian government’s ban on press and human rights watchdogs from entering the country makes determining the total casualty list an extremely difficult task. The opposition group Syrian Revolution placed the figure at 4,207 by Friday morning. The United Nations estimate—which is on the conservative side because of the comprehensive verification process involved—has placed the figure at a minimum of 3,000 as of October 14. The figure is likely to be considerably higher today due to the mounting daily death toll.

But even if at this most conservative estimate (3,000 deaths), an average of 13 people have been killed every single day since protests began on March 15. That is why the Arab League’s decision Wednesday to give the Syrian regime another two weeks to enter into negotiations with the opposition (a similar position was taken on October 15) is, according to many opposition figures, tantamount to tolerating two more weeks of killing.

And looking at what is happening on the street, the skeptics are right to be concerned. The Arab League plan, which calls for the immediate cessation of violence and release of an estimated 70,000 political prisoners, as well as the removal of tanks from the streets and permission for the press to enter, has not yet been heeded to. On the contrary, 25 were killed on Wednesday, 20 more Thursday, and, at the time of writing, at least 18 on Friday, according to activists in Syria. Some prisoners have been released, but not vast numbers.

For those reasons, and the fact that President Assad has a poor track record of following through with promises to reform since the uprisings began, opposition figures are skeptical, believing instead that Assad is taking advantage of the proposed plan.

“It is all a matter of false promises to buy time, time to kill,” said Ahmad, an activist based in Homs who spoke to NOW Lebanon over Skype. Ahmad believes that the regime is using this “bought time” to target Homs, specifically the Bab Amer neighborhood, which many believe is a key focal point of the demonstrations.

Ahmad said Bab Amer was being shelled by the Syrian army as the regime declared its agreement to the league’s initiative, and believes the regime intends to “raze Bab Amer from Homs’ map because it is the heart of the revolution.”

Omar Edelby, a member of the main opposition group, the Syrian National Council, also does not believe Assad will carry out the promised reforms. “The regime will not apply the items in the agreement [because this] will mean that eventually the regime will fall, and the current regime will not agree to its own downfall.”

The head of the SNC, Burhan Ghalioun, agrees. In a public statement issued Friday, Ghalioun said, “It is clear that the Syrian regime is incapable of implementing any plan. It is in a real crisis, and it can neither move forward nor retreat.”

Moreover, Ghalioun called on the Arab League to withdraw “Arab ambassadors [from Syria] and freeze Damascus’ membership in the league.”
This came after a statement published on the Syrian Interior Ministry’s website requesting individuals to hand in their weapons by Saturday, November 12, and promising amnesty to those who comply.

If the plan fails, the Arab League does not appear to have many options left to pressure the Syrian regime to end the bloodshed. And, according to Mohammad al-Shadly, head of Political Affairs at al-Hayat newspaper’s Cairo bureau and expert on Arab League matters, it is reluctant to freeze Syria’s membership.

“If the Arab League takes the decision to suspend Syria… this will mean that any talks between the Arab League and the Syrian government will be suspended,” he said, adding, “This will mean the crisis is taken back to the Security Council… [and] there will no longer be any Arab initiative in solving the crisis.”