Aline Sara

As people in the Arab world continue to voice opposition to dictatorial regimes, their leaders remain mostly silent. Though formerly quiet members of the international community have spoken out against the violence in Syria, the latest country to witness a significant anti-regime uprising and subsequent security crackdown, the Arab League has remained silent.

Turkey is positioning itself as a mediator between the Syrian government and the protesters, hosting opposition activists for The Conference for Change in Syria this week, and the EU and US have passed sanctions against the Syrian leadership. Many however, are left wondering why the Arab states, which condemned the government crackdown against dissenters in Libya and kicked the country out of the Arab League, are keeping mum on the Assad regime.

According to Dr. Hilal Khashan, professor of Political Studies at the American University of Beirut, the Arab League is not an autonomous entity, and thus never acts on its own. “It intervened on Libya because of Western pressure, because NATO and the US needed to legitimatize their intervention against [Colonel Muammar] Qaddafi,” he said. But the West doesn’t seem very keen on repeating the action, he added, especially not in Syria.

To Egyptian activist and executive director of Cairo-based Arab Forum for Alternatives Mohammad Agati, the question isn’t about Arab silence, but rather its intervention in Libya in the first place. “A typical Arab League does not take any stances,” he said. “If anything, they usually bolster regimes.”
Most experts NOW Lebanon spoke with confirmed that view. Because the majority of the region’s regimes are autocracies, few leaders want to see any of their counterparts get toppled.

“In addition to [their fear of a] domino effect, Syria is regarded as an anchor state and microcosm of the entire Arab East,” explained Khashan. “An authoritarian leadership, a business class, a divisive society, as well as religious and ethnic divisions; if Syria goes down, the entire region will be affected… No one in the Arab League is willing to see Assad go,” he said. When asked whether the Arab states are hoping the Assad regime will tame the protests, no matter how many people are killed, he said, “I hate to agree, but that is the case.”

In the meantime, the death toll continues to rise, with over 1,000 killed since the uprising began two months ago.
“Everyone is in a wait-and-see situation,” said Dr. Imad Salameh, Political Science professor at the Lebanese-American University. If Syria distances itself from its main ally, Iran, the Arab states, mainly Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, will tolerate the status quo, which for them is safer than the unknown, he added. “The players do not see how the alternative can benefit their agenda in the region, and Turks are especially concerned about another Iraq,” he said, alluding to the common fear of a post-Assad wave of Sunni extremism spreading to neighboring states.

Another fear is that while he is still in power, if provoked enough, Assad could intentionally try to destabilize other regional states to put pressure on them. Though Salameh does not believe Assad has the leverage to unleash a wave of violence in neighboring countries, Khashan said he could use the Kurds of Syria as a destabilizing power. “[Iraqi President] Jalal Talabani, who influences Kurds in Syria, told them to take it easy on Assad. They know the regime can contribute to the resumption of the insurgency in Iraq,” he said.

Agati, on the other hand, said the Syrian regime is beginning to feel cornered and would be wise to avoid aggravating its neighbors.
“Relations with Assad and the [other regional] regimes are not as bad as it seems… so it would be stupid of Assad to anger his counterparts,” he said.

While in late April, Human Rights Watch urged Arab countries – especially Egypt and Tunisia, which had their own revolutions – to join international efforts and inquire into the “Syrian government's use of lethal force against peaceful protesters,” some analysts believe the call was unrealistic.
“Egypt is going through a transitional phase; I don’t think they are seeking confrontation with anyone at the moment,” said Salameh, a thought that was echoed by Agati, who noted that foreign policy had its limits, and that Egypt is currently not in a position to take a stand.
“To expect something from the Arab League is like expecting me to swim from one side of the Atlantic to the other,” added Khashan.

Despite a seeming stalemate on the horizon, Salameh voiced optimism. “At this point, the movement in Syria is indigenous… by Syrians, for Syrians, and this is what makes it stronger,” he said. “Day by day, it’s showing itself not supported or driven by foreign forces, which makes more and more Syrians believe in their cause.”
Though the international community, and especially the Arab League, does not seem willing to intervene, non-government groups from across the world should stand up for the human rights of the Syrian people, he said. “It will help them maintain their opposition.”