Hanin Ghaddar

A grab taken off a video downloaded from YouTube shows Syrians demonstrating in Kofr Bel on May 6, 2011, a "Day of Defiance" in which thousands of Syrians rallied even as the regime of President Bashar al-Assad deployed tanks.

It has been two months since the Syrian uprising started, and the result is that more than 9,000 protestors have been arrested, almost 1,000 murdered, and no reforms have been instituted. It is clear now that the protestors will not stop, but neither will President Bashar al-Assad’s regime.
How this is going to end, no one knows, but there are a few issues that have become clear to both the Syrian people and those who are watching the uprising closely. 

First, Assad has lost his credibility before the international community. It is clear now that he is not only incapable of reform, but he also has no problem murdering his own people. His ordering his troops to kill peaceful protestors is, quite simply, a crime against humanity.

Second, he and those who committed these crimes should be punished through the proper channels; otherwise, the people who have been tortured, humiliated and have had their loved ones killed might eventually resort to non-peaceful methods.

Third, there are no armed groups among the protestors. All the videos of street protests being posted on the internet show unarmed demonstrators being shot and humiliated by armed security forces, who are sometimes dressed in civilian clothes. There are no videos showing demonstrators shooting at the security forces.
 
The regime would have certainly broadcasted on its official TV channels such videos if they existed. All they are showing is pre-recorded interviews with individuals claiming that they were armed and funded by “outside forces,” in an attempt to convince viewers that there is a conspiracy by foreign powers to bring down the Assad regime.
Fourth, there is no conspiracy. The uprising of the Syrian people is a result of their desire for dignity, democracy and freedom. They aspire to be treated like citizens and have followed the lead of their brothers and sisters in Tunisia and Egypt. They believe that this is their moment, and if they let it pass, they will regret it forever. The Arab Spring will not wait for them to prepare themselves more. So they organized themselves with whatever technical and logistical expertise that was available to them and broke the barrier of fear that has kept them silent for 40 years.
Fifth, there is no turning back for the Syrian people. They know that if they give up their movement and the regime survives, it will come out stronger than ever, and will go after dissenters one by one to make sure that no one ever dares criticize it again.

Sixth, Islamists, Salafists and Muslim Brothers do not constitute the majority of the Syrian protestors. Those protesting against the regime are regular Syrian people. They are liberal intellectuals, students, Kurds in Qamishly, Druze in Soweida, and tribes in Hama, Daraa, Banias and other areas. That is why it will be difficult for the Syrian regime to shut down the protests: They are widespread and diverse. The people will still find ways to continue, unless the regime is able to kill hundreds of thousands of protestors spread across the country.

Because of the above, and in the context of the Arab Spring that is sweeping the whole region, the Syrian uprising cannot be stopped with violent means. But the question remains: Why are the Libyan people’s lives and demands for reform more valid for the international community than the Syrians’? Is it because the Libyans, whose rebellion has not been as peaceful as the Syrians’, have oil?

The West couldn’t tolerate the idea of Muammar Qaddafi’s forces entering Benghazi and killing innocent people during the first stages of the Libyan uprising, and so they interfered, politically and militarily. Syrian forces are massacring their own people in more than one area, and the international community, including the suspiciously silent Arab states, has been extremely reserved in its reaction.

The Syrian people do not want any foreign interference – especially militarily – in their uprising, but they certainly do not want to feel abandoned.
The Syrian regime is killing innocent people. The security forces are collectively punishing villages and towns where protests have been taking place, and are ignoring all calls for reform and for ending the use of violence against the people. The regime believes that this is the only way to survive, and it will not stop before it makes sure everything goes back to normal.

However, nothing will go back to normal. For one, the past 40 years were not “normal” for the Syrians, who have suffered from corruption, violation of their basic human rights and freedoms, and oppression in the name of “resisting Israel.” Secondly, the Syrian people are aware that there is no turning back.
The whole region is turning toward democracy, and a dictatorship in Syria cannot survive in this context, no matter how protected and confident it feels. The question is not whether Assad’s regime survives or not, but how many more people it will murder before the world realizes that it is time for him to step down.

Hanin Ghaddar is managing editor of NOW Lebanon