Matt Nash

Turkey is pressuring Syrian President Bashar al-Assad to implement reforms and stop a violent crackdown on protesters, but, much like its Western allies, it has little interest in seeing the regime fall, several experts told NOW Lebanon.
“We are still waiting to see what the Syrian government can do in terms of addressing the demands of the opposition,” Inan Özyildiz, Ankara’s ambassador to Beirut, told NOW Lebanon Tuesday on the sidelines of a conference titled “Turkey’s Relations with the Changing Arab World.”

“We are going to see what will be the real implementation of the reforms promised by President Assad, how this process will continue, etc. But if it doesn’t work – [which] I hope [is] not [the case] – we will assess our position later on according to new developments in Syria,” he said.

Özyildiz said Turkey’s prime minister, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, “alluded” to upping pressure on Syria in a comment on Monday. In a television interview, Erdoğan said, “We do not want to see another Hama massacre,” in reference to the Syrian army’s leveling of that city in 1982 to crush a Muslim Brotherhood rebellion.
He would not detail the tools Ankara has at its disposal to pressure Damascus, but noted that strengthened ties between the two countries in recent years put Turkey in a prime position to “pass the right messages to the Syrian government” from the West, and “We may be more convincing when we talk to the Syrians.”

That said, Fadi Hakura, a Turkey expert with the London-based think tank Chatham House, told NOW Lebanon that Turkey is probably not getting specific requests from the US and Europe on what to do with Damascus.
“I don’t think the West has a defined and clear strategy vis-à-vis Syria, nor what they’d like Turkey to do,” he said. Ankara is watching “facts on the ground” develop and is trying to respond accordingly.
Turkey is walking a very thin line in its approach to dealing with the protests and violence in Syria, Sabiha Senyücel Gündoğar, an officer with the foreign policy program of the Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation (TESEV), told NOW Lebanon.

“No one wants Assad to leave,” she said. However, Turkey wants to see a stable Syria that respects democratic and human rights. “Turkey is trying to balance.”
Both continuing violence and the potential of a Syria without Assad spark Turkish fears of how Syrian Kurds will react. Turkey has its own Kurdish population that has staged frequent rebellions calling for an autonomous state, an idea anathema to Ankara.

“Turkey always fears instability with the Kurds in Syria will spill over,” Hakura said. On May 1, the Turkish daily Hurriyet reported that Ankara is formulating a plan to establish refugee camps on the Syrian side of the border, should a “massive influx” of people try fleeing. This would involve Turkish soldiers on Syrian territory to protect civilians, the daily said.
Gündoğar said she had not heard this news but would not be surprised by it, as Turkey is already uneasy with the “hundreds” of refugees who have already crossed the border.

As noted by speaker after speaker at the conference – organized by the Carnegie Middle East Center, Germany’s Heinrich Böll Stiftung and TESEV – Turkey has been bolstering economic ties with the Middle East, particularly Jordan, Lebanon and Syria. Every expert NOW Lebanon spoke with during the conference, however, was skeptical of the idea that Turkey may cut some partnerships with Damascus as a pressure tactic.
Nabil Sukkar, managing director of the Syrian Consulting Bureau for Development and Investment, however, said while speaking on a panel that he thought Syria’s reaction to the current unrest would be to once again economically isolate itself.

He noted that Syria has long been cut off from the world economy and has only recently – despite promises of reform and liberalization from Assad when he took power in 2000 – begun slowly opening up.
Because of recent events, “Syria will retreat from liberalization and its regional [economic] ambitions,” he said.
Regardless of how events unfold in Syria, Mustafa El-Labbad, director of Egypt’s Al Sharq Center for Regional and Strategic Studies, said Turkey stands to benefit more than Damascus’ other close ally, Iran.

“Because Turkey has leverage on the Syrian opposition, if there is any change in Syria, Turkey will keep its presence in Syria – whether [we see] a moderate Bashar al-Assad or even a regime change, Turkey will not lose,” he told NOW Lebanon.

“The loser will be Iran, who has only one option: the current government with the current policy,” he said.
Indeed, in early April, Turkey hosted the secretary general of Syria’s banned Muslim Brotherhood – though Ankara later distanced itself from his fiery comments.
As for how long Ankara will wait for Assad to implement reforms and curb the violence, Özyildiz demurred.
“There must be a reasonable timeframe so it does not drag on for months and months or years,” he said. “It must be rather quick in order to satisfy the angry population and listen to their demands, views, opinions about the future of Syria.”