Rami G. Khouri

A poll of Arab public opinion released Monday in Qatar provides timely new insights into the sentiments and values of people across the Arab world on issues such as Daesh (ISIS), the Arab uprisings and the role of foreign powers in the region. The value of such knowledge begs the question of whether the leading forces engaging in military and diplomatic battles to shape the future of our region take into consideration the views of the beleaguered Arab citizens who are most impacted.

The voices of ordinary citizens seem largely absent from events in war-ravaged states such as Iraq, Yemen, Libya and Syria, and other countries that do not suffer, or suffer less, from warfare, terrorism and ethno-nationalist violence. This absence of linkages between citizen sentiments and state policies was a major reason for the uprisings five years ago and persists today. Military, political and diplomatic activity in our region today is shaped by nondemocratic and unaccountable Arab governments, many actively waging war in neighboring Arab states; by local armed groups and smaller militias with religious, ethnic, ideological or tribal identities, some of which (as in Iraq, Lebanon, Palestine and Yemen) are stronger than their governments; by foreign and Arab governments engaging in warfare inside half a dozen Arab countries; and by United Nations and other officials seeking to mediate diplomatic agreements to restore order and national integrity in broken lands such as Libya, Syria and Yemen.

These dominant players operate within an orbit of narrow elites that has changed very little since the European powers tapped into many of these same groups to create new countries around 1920. Public-opinion surveys across the Arab world allow us to penetrate beyond these elites and know precisely how ordinary people feel about important issues of the day and what they seek in the future.

The 2015 Arab Opinion Index released this week by the Doha-based Arab Center for Research and Policy Analysis is the largest public opinion poll of its kind in the Arab world (18,311 face-to-face interviews in 12 Arab countries, representing around 90 percent of the entire Arab population, with a margin of error of 2-3 percent).

This fourth consecutive survey since 2011 confirms again that Arabs overwhelmingly oppose Daesh, with 89 percent of respondents viewing it negatively, and just 7 percent positively. More important, there is no significant correlation between support for Daesh and religiosity, since “favorable views of [Daesh] are equally prevalent among respondents who are “very religious” and those who are “not religious,” and also equally prevalent amongst opponents and supporters of the separation of religion from the state.”This supports the view – widely ignored in the West – that political and socio-economic grievances, rather than religious sentiments, explain most of the support existing for radical extremist organizations. No consensus exists on how best to fight Daesh, but it is fascinating that the most effective means mentioned are supporting regional democratic transitions (28 percent); resolving the Palestinian issue (18 percent); ending foreign intervention (14 percent); intensifying the military campaign against Daesh (14 percent); and resolving the Syrian crisis in line with the Syrian people’s aspirations (12 percent).A solid majority of 62 percent sees a change in the Syrian regime as part of ending the Syria crisis, indicating, “sympathy to the aims and objectives of the Syrian revolution.” Yet Arabs broadly are concerned about how the original Arab uprisings allowed the region to plunge into civil wars, instability and state fragmentation, including foreign military involvement. Just 34 percent are positive on how the Arab revolutions have turned out, and 59 percent are negative. Only 5 percent of those with negative views generally oppose the revolutions; 48 percent feel the Arab revolutions face a series of challenges, but will ultimately succeed in achieving their aims. One-third of respondent feel the uprisings are over and the old regimes have returned to power.

Mohammad Almasri, coordinator of the Arab Opinion Index, notes that Arab citizens have lost confidence in all political movements whether Islamist or secular-nationalist, partly due to “the discord and disarray among Arab political movements and the partisanship and conflicts between them.”

He found that 57 percent of respondents feared Islamist political movements, while 61 percent feared secular movements. This lack of consensus between these two broad categories of political movements, Almasri said, “can be exploited by anti-democratic forces to agitate for a return to authoritarianism, and will therefore prove to be an obstacle on the path to democratization.”

Those people in our region and abroad who seek real insights into Arab people’s views and values, rather than the fantasy and racism that define much of the public discussion of our region, would do well to read more about these findings on the website of the Arab Center for Research and Policy Studies.