Michael Young

How did Michel Aoun interpret the important statement this week of the speaker of Parliament, Nabih Berri? In remarks to As-Safir, Berri said that he would not vote for Aoun as president, after the general said that parliament was illegitimate. “I personally do not accept this logic, and I refuse to vote for [someone who] tells me I am illegitimate,” Berri declared. Aside from Berri’s faux indignation, there was a more pertinent message in what the speaker said: His willingness to oppose Aoun’s election may have betrayed Hezbollah’s true intentions with regard to the general. If Berri, who generally avoids highlighting his differences with Hezbollah over major national issues, was willing to so bluntly express his opposition to Aoun, then perhaps he knew this reflected the party’s thinking.

It has been a frustrating time for Aoun. His efforts to force the government to appoint his son-in-law Shamel Roukoz Army commander have failed. The Aounists have successfully blocked most government activity and insist the prime minister, Tammam Salam, has usurped the prerogatives of the Maronite president. Yet they have also ensured there is no president by continuing to boycott parliamentary election sessions. Aoun is trying to blackmail the institution into voting for him. 

When Aoun tried to mobilize his supporters against the government in early July, the result was a fiasco. Aounists clashed with soldiers, as sure a guarantee of failure as any in a country where the military is currently viewed as a savior, turning many in the Army against Aoun. For months he has banged his head against the wall and frozen the system, allowing himself to be used by Hezbollah to perpetuate the vacuum in the presidency. This may ultimately be used to alter the post-Taif system to the Christians’ disadvantage.

Even within the Aounist movement there are those pointing to Aoun’s increasing volatility. At a moment when the country is facing a trash crisis, an electricity crisis, a refugee crisis, and a political vacuum of major proportions, national anger with Aoun and his detrimental, pointless antics has hit new highs.

However, Berri’s comments were the most potent sign of the growing impatience with Aoun of his allies. From the outset Hezbollah made it clear that the general had no backing to bring down the government. This was reaffirmed in speech after speech by Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah. Even Aoun’s resort to street action was opposed by Sleiman Frangieh. While both Hezbollah and Frangieh have expressed “official” support for Aoun’s aims, neither has taken any action in his favor. 

There have been reports this week that Aoun might be amenable to a compromise over security appointments. However, this seems unlikely even if there may be a move to raise the retirement age of senior Army officers. Such a scheme would extend the term of Army commander Gen. Jean Kahwagi, chief of staff Walid Salman, and others slated to retire this summer. The decision, however, requires a draft law passed by the government and a vote in Parliament. All the signs are that the Aounists will reject such a path. Hezbollah’s behavior will be essential in further revealing the party’s red lines to Aoun.

Hezbollah certainly has no intention of losing its main Christian ally, but presently Salam is even more important to the party than is Aoun, as he indirectly provides it with Sunni political cover while it pursues its military operations in Syria. Moreover, an effective Army and government are vital when the situation in Lebanon is so unstable and over a million Syrian refugees are living in the country. Hezbollah urgently needs to control a situation that has been shaken by its intervention next door. 

Aoun’s malaise comes partly from the fact that in September elections are scheduled to be held in the Free Patriotic Movement. The two main candidates for leadership, reportedly, will be Gebran Bassil, Aoun’s son-in-law, and Alain Aoun, the general’s nephew (Who, me nepotistic?). 

Aoun is said to back Bassil, but some have suggested that internal polling indicates the FPM’s base prefers Alain Aoun. If the nephew’s victory looks certain then expect elections to be delayed, because Michel Aoun only allows voting when the results he desires are preordained. 

But Aoun is too much the egoist not to feel uneasy as much by a Bassil victory as by an Alain Aoun victory. The FPM election, while it will not mark Aoun’s political end, will signal the beginning of the end. The general is an old man, even if his avidity is that of someone generations younger. To Aoun the presidential election last year was make or break and he has held Lebanon hostage since because his selfishness cannot be reconciled with once again not getting what he wants.

The depth of Aoun’s pervasive mediocrity was shown last weekend when he challenged Saad Hariri to a live debate. What he expected to gain from such a charade was beyond most Lebanese. If the general is really concerned about the constitutionality of governing institutions and the fate of the Christians, then he should tell his parliamentarians to elect a president and spare us ancillary imbecilities. Lebanon is at the end of its tether, and Aoun is only making things worse.