By Rami G. Khouri 

Every once in a while the Middle East experiences a series of major and simultaneous developments in different arenas, indicating that something important is taking place. We are passing through just such a moment this week, with dramatic developments in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Palestine and Israel, Iran, Turkey, Egypt, Tunisia, Libya and several Gulf states, without any sign of what is truly historic and new and what is a passing phenomenon.

 

Conspiracy theorists will be disappointed to learn that nobody is in charge, as they had long imagined, or pulling strings to achieve predetermined objectives, such as the breakup of Arab countries into a series of ethnic principalities, or the control of Arab countries by Islamist groups beholden to Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United States. Local dynamics drive each set of major changes across the region, with cross-border linkages following as a corollary in most cases.

 

Iraq is pursuing its own postwar domestic conflicts and trying to figure out the balance among its Arab and Kurdish components, its Iraqi and Iranian interests, and the frail communalism among Shiites and Sunnis. The U.S. is pushing hard to revive Palestinian-Israeli peace negotiations by focusing on three tactics that have repeatedly failed and probably will fail again – tripartite meetings with Jordan; talks between Shimon Peres and Mahmoud Abbas who would not recognize a credible peace process if they found it in their soup; and a proposed $4 billion development initiative for occupied Palestinian territories that focuses on economic development rather than liberation as the antidote to the depressed condition in Arab Palestine.

 

Egypt, Tunisia and Libya are all passing through critical moments in their slow but steady transitions to new and more legitimate governance systems that allow ordinary Arab citizens for the first time ever to define their constitutions and shape the character, configuration and policies of their state. Arab Gulf countries such as Kuwait, Bahrain and Saudi Arabia are all experiencing increased stirrings by citizens demanding a greater say in how their government wields power and money. This occurs mostly on social media, but also with a growing number of novel street demonstrations.

 

Iran and Turkey, the two big non-Arab but Muslim-majority countries in the region are both learning hard lessons on now to relate to Arab people and politics in a manner that is acceptable to all parties, rather than imposing their will on weaker Arabs. Both of them probably will see their influence in the region decline as indigenous Arab systems enjoy greater legitimacy and self-confidence.

 

Syria is deep into its own home-grown war that threatens to weaken central government authority and leave the future country much more frail and decentralized. Syria-Lebanon is the most fascinating arena right now, and it has slowly meshed into a single dynamic, to the chagrin of most Lebanese who do not like to be dominated by their larger and more politically assertive neighbor. Fighting in Syria has blended smoothly with older ideological conflicts in Lebanon, where antagonistic Lebanese who have long confronted or battled each other at home are now participating directly in the battles inside Syria, even as the Syrian war plays itself out inside Lebanon.

 

The most profound development in this respect – and this is my candidate for the most important thing that happened this month in the Middle East – was the mini-rocket attack Sunday morning against a predominantly Shiite neighborhood of Beirut southern suburbs. This was a dramatic expression of the willingness by some party (as yet unidentified) to attack Hezbollah directly, rather than merely condemn it rhetorically. Only Israel previously attacked Hezbollah directly, which always resulted in Hezbollah emerging from the experience more determined than ever to strengthen its military capabilities.

 

So we now have Hezbollah fighting against Syrian opposition forces inside Syria, many (mostly Sunni Islamist) forces in Lebanon fighting against Assad and Hezbollah in Syria, pro- and anti-Bashar Assad groups (mostly Alawites and Sunnis) fighting each other in Tripoli, and unknown groups attacking Hezbollah in Beirut and murdering Lebanese soldiers in the border region with Syria, as happened Monday in Arsal. If the anti-Hezbollah groups expand their attacks against the party in retaliation for Hezbollah’s determination to fight to the end to keep the Assad regime in power, we could edge closer to the dreaded Armageddon scenario of an all-out regional war between Syria, Hezbollah and Iran on one side and everyone else on the other.

 

But wait, the end of the world may not be at hand, because Monday the Lebanese caretaker government agreed to hold parliamentary elections on time in mid-June. The final decision is up to Parliament, but the decision suggested that the powers that be in Lebanon do not want all-out war. They probably will fight their battles in Syria for now, as everyone else in the region and the world’s powers seem to be doing.