Date: Jun 24, 2019 Source: The Daily Star Hezbollah participation in U.S.-Iran war will lead Lebanon ‘to the abyss’ Hussein Dakroub| The Daily Star BEIRUT: A much-feared military confrontation between the U.S. and Iran in which Hezbollah is widely expected to participate is bound to lead to grave consequences for Lebanon’s fragile stability and ailing economy, political analysts say. Furthermore, Hezbollah’s participation in a large-scale U.S.-Iran war would also see Lebanon lurch into a state in flux and further deepen divisions within a government that is already sharply split over the Iranian-backed party’s arsenal and its involvement in regional conflicts, the experts say. They also warn that Hezbollah’s declared threat to join the battle if Iran were attacked by the U.S. or Israel would amount to a blatant violation of the government’s policy of dissociation from regional turmoil and undermine the core of the 2016 presidential settlement that called for distancing Lebanon from regional conflicts. The Lebanese government, given its strong commitment to the declared policy of dissociation from regional strife, is widely expected to oppose Hezbollah’s involvement in a new regional war, in the same way it had rejected the group’s participation in the 8-year-old war in Syria on the side of Syrian President Bashar Assad’s forces. Former Future MP Ammar Houri, a political adviser to Prime Minister Saad Hariri, said that despite its split over Hezbollah’s arms and the party’s involvement in the war in Syria, “the government will reject the participation of any Lebanese party in any regional conflict and is committed to the dissociation policy.” “According to the government’s policy statement, the decision of war and peace is in the hands of the government, rather than in the hands of any Lebanese party,” Houri told The Daily Star. He said Hezbollah’s participation in any potential U.S. attack on Iran would be a breach of the dissociation policy and would have negative political repercussions on Lebanon. Asked how serious the repercussions would be, Houri said: “Hezbollah’s participation in a new regional war will take the country to the abyss.” Amid spiraling tensions between Washington and Tehran that have been simmering since President Donald Trump withdrew the U.S. last year from the 2015 nuclear deal between Iran and world powers and restored tough sanctions that have pushed the Islamic Republic’s economy into crisis, Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hasan Nasrallah warned earlier this month that any U.S. war against Iran would not be confined to Iran’s borders. “The entire region will be on fire,” Nasrallah warned in a televised speech on June 1. Nasrallah’s stern warning clearly suggested that Hezbollah and other Iranian-backed forces operating in Iraq, Syria and Yemen would join the battle should the U.S. or Israel attack Iran over its nuclear and ballistic missile programs. Yet, some analysts believe that Hezbollah, seeking to spare Lebanon the massive destruction to its infrastructure caused by Israel’s airstrikes and artillery bombardment during the 34-day war with the party in 2006, might not this time ignite the generally calm south Lebanon front against Israel and would instead fight U.S. troops deployed in Syria and Iraq. Nasrallah’s warning comes as the long-smoldering tinderbox between America and its archfoe, Iran, appeared ready to ignite last week following Tehran’s downing of an unmanned U.S. drone in an unprecedented incident that sent escalating tensions between the two sides soaring to an alarming level and threatened to plunge the volatile region into a full-blown conflagration. Following his reversal from a military strike against Iran, Trump said Saturday he would impose additional sanctions against Tehran in an effort to prevent it from obtaining nuclear weapons, adding that military action was still a possibility. Imad Salamey, associate professor of political science and international affairs at the Lebanese American University, also warned of dire consequences from Hezbollah’s involvement in a possible U.S.-Iran military showdown. “The government will most probably respond with divisions toward any unprovoked Hezbollah military action against Israel, but would stand by Hezbollah against any massive Israeli retaliation, a deja vu of the 2006 War,” Salamey told The Daily Star. He was referring to the 2006 Hezbollah-Israel War that evoked Lebanese solidarity with the party and drew nationwide condemnation of the Jewish state’s massive devastation of the country’s infrastructure. “Any confrontation with Israel will have dire economic and political repercussions on Lebanon similar to the consequences that have happened in previous showdowns in 1982 and 2006,” Salamey said, referring to Israel’s invasion of Lebanon in 1982 and the 2006 Israel-Hezbollah war. “This time around, however, the Russian political involvement in brokering new security and political arrangements will be most present. “In addition, the Chinese may play a role to boost economic and post-conflict assistance in a display of a growing economic regional role that directly challenges traditional U.S. dominance in the MENA,” Salamey added. Others analysts said Hariri’s government, in which Hezbollah is represented with three ministers for the first time, including the important health portfolio, would find itself in flux and unable to stop Hezbollah from joining the battle in the event of a U.S. or Israeli attack on Iran. “The minimum the Lebanese state can do in the event of Hezbollah’s participation in a U.S.-Iranian confrontation is to issue a statement announcing its rejection of the party’s participation and affirming the government’s neutrality in conformity with the declared policy of dissociation,” Sami Nader, a professor of economics and international relations at Saint Joseph University, told The Daily Star. He warned that Hezbollah’s decision to fight alongside its benefactor, Iran, in any war would harm Lebanon’s relations with the West, as well as with Arab countries. “Hezbollah joining the battle to help Iran in any possible U.S. attack on it will be a total breach of the government’s dissociation policy and will also strike Lebanon’s relations with Arab countries and friendly Western states, including the U.S.,” said Nader, also the director of the Levant Institute for Strategic Affairs, a Beirut-based think tank. Besides threatening Cabinet unity, Nader said Hezbollah’s involvement in a U.S.-Iranian showdown would also destroy the “bedrock of the 2016 political settlement” that led to the election of Michel Aoun as president and brought Hariri back to the premiership. He added that the settlement, which ended a presidential vacuum that lasted more than 2 1/2 years, called for “neutralizing Lebanon from regional struggles.” Nader went on to warn of grave political, security and economic consequences on Lebanon from Hezbollah’s involvement in a new regional war, “especially if Hezbollah and other Iranian-backed militias struck American targets in the region.” “The U.S. will respond harshly to any assault by Iran or its proxies on any American target in the region,” he said. “Hezbollah here is not fighting the Israeli enemy as it did to liberate south Lebanon from Israeli occupation forces [in 2000]. Hezbollah here is facing America, which has been supporting Lebanon’s stability and independence and offering military assistance to the Lebanese Army,” Nader added. Simon Haddad, a professor of political science at the American University of Beirut, said the Lebanese government would not be able to take any concrete action in the event of a U.S.-Iranian military clash. “The government cannot prevent Hezbollah from participating in a war being waged against Iran. At best, it will try to adopt a neutral or vague position as it did during the 2006 Israel-Hezbollah war,” Haddad told The Daily Star. He pointed out that without a new war in the region, the government was already riven by political differences over key domestic and regional issues, including upcoming administrative appointments, Hezbollah’s arsenal, future relations with Syria and the question of Syrian refugees’ return to their country. “Hezbollah’s participation in a new regional war will further aggravate divisions within the government,” Haddad said. He added that while Hezbollah, the Amal Movement and the Free Patriotic Movement, founded by Aoun, were aligned with the “Iranian axis,” the Future Movement, the Lebanese Forces and their allies were associated with the “opposite axis,” a reference to the rival Saudi-led alliance that is vying with Iran for power and influence in the region. Noting that Hezbollah was known for carefully studying its military options in any battle, the AUB professor said: “Hezbollah will not enter into a direct battle with America. It will also not ignite the south Lebanon front against Israel unless the Jewish state attacks Iran.” But in a recent speech, Nasrallah warned that all fronts - the Iraqi, Syrian and south Lebanon fronts - would be ignited if Iran were to be attacked by America or Israel. Nasrallah had said Hezbollah, which is reported to possess over 100,000 medium- and long-range missiles, had all the precision missiles it needed for “any upcoming war and to hit any target.” The Hezbollah chief had also warned that “hundreds of thousands of Arab and Muslim fighters” would be ready to fight against Israel if it attacked Lebanon. Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea criticized Hezbollah’s threat to join the battle if Iran were to be attacked by either the U.S. or Israel, saying the Lebanese must not pay the price for the benefit of Iran or other countries. “There is a party [Hezbollah] that has declared clearly several times that if Iran were attacked, it would not stand idle. “We draw these statements to the attention of President Michel Aoun, Prime Minister Saad Hariri, all the Cabinet combined and Parliament combined, because the responsibility to protect Lebanon from any evil action does not fall on the shoulders of any party or side, but on the shoulders of the state and legitimate authorities in Lebanon,” Geagea told a news conference last week. He urged the government to publicly tell Hezbollah that it “must fully comply with the dissociation policy, in words and deeds.” Hezbollah officials and political analysts said the recent U.S. military show of force in the Gulf region to confront alleged Iranian threats, coupled with the toughening of American sanctions on Iran, was mainly intended to force Tehran to the negotiation table. Despite the tensions with Tehran, Trump and U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo have repeatedly declared that Washington does not seek war with Iran. “Our policy remains an economic and diplomatic effort to bring Iran back to the negotiating table,” Pompeo said last week. But Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who has the final say on all state affairs, has spurned any talks with the Trump administration while Tehran is under sanctions.