Date: Mar 23, 2019 Source: The Daily Star U.S. tirade ‘unlikely’ to curb Hezbollah Hussein Dakroub| The Daily Star BEIRUT: U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo’s unprecedented tough rhetoric against Hezbollah amounted to a call on the Lebanese government to act to curb the party’s influence in Lebanon, but the U.S. action will lead nowhere, political analysts said Friday. They said top Lebanese leaders, being aware of Pompeo’s escalating anti-Hezbollah tirade, voiced support for the party as being a main political component in Lebanon even before the top U.S. diplomat arrived in Beirut on the last leg of a regional tour aimed at ramping up pressure on Iran and the Shiite group, which has long been labeled a “terrorist organization” by Washington. After visiting Kuwait and Israel where he launched a blistering tirade against Hezbollah, Pompeo, on his first trip to Lebanon as secretary of state, Friday held talks with top Lebanese leaders, highlighting U.S. concerns about the party’s “destabilizing activities” in Lebanon and the region. Besides urging Lebanese officials to curb Hezbollah’s influence, he said the party was a terrorist organization that should not be allowed to set policies or wield power despite its participation in Parliament and Cabinet. Pompeo accused Hezbollah of stealing the Lebanese state’s resources and claimed its presence in Parliament was partially based on “intimidation.” “Hezbollah robs the Lebanese state of resources that rightfully belong to its people,” Pompeo said during a joint news conference in Beirut with Foreign Minister Gebran Bassil. “Whether through political promises or outright intimidation, Hezbollah sits inside the national assembly [and] other state institutions and pretends to support the state. Meanwhile, Hezbollah defies the state and the people of Lebanon through a terrorist wing that is intent on spreading its destruction,” Pompeo said, claiming that Hezbollah “stands in the way of the Lebanese people’s dreams.” Prodding the Lebanese to act against Hezbollah, he said: “The Lebanese people should no longer be made to suffer for the political and military ambitions of an outlaw nation [Iran] and its terrorist affiliate.” He added that it would “take courage for the nation of Lebanon to stand up to Hezbollah’s criminality, terror and threats.” “Pompeo’s very tough statement against Hezbollah has been well-known and is within expectations. But it’s the first time it is announced publicly,” Shafik Masri, a professor of international law at the Lebanese University and the American University of Beirut, told The Daily Star. “Pompeo appeared to have conveyed a U.S. demand to the Lebanese government to fight Hezbollah’s policy and take measures to rein in the party’s influence in the government.” “But it is unlikely for the Lebanese government to carry out this American demand,” Masri added. “This American demand might gain the approval of a section of the Lebanese, but it faces opposition from another section.” “Pompeo’s speech in Beirut is a full-fledged escalatory tone against not only Hezbollah, but also against Iran and Syria. It amounts to a call on the Lebanese government to act to rein in Hezbollah,” he said. Masri added that President Michel Aoun, Speaker Nabih Berri and Bassil had rejected the U.S. demand against Hezbollah when they stressed in separate meetings with Pompeo that the party was an essential political component in Lebanon and defended its resistance against Israeli occupation of Lebanese territory in the south. “Hezbollah is a Lebanese party emanating from a popular base that represents one of the country’s main sects,” Aoun told Pompeo during their meeting at Baabda Palace. Speaking at a joint news conference with Pompeo after talks at the Foreign Ministry, Bassil said: “We confirmed to him [Pompeo] that Hezbollah is a Lebanese and not terrorist party and that its MPs have been elected by the people with a large popular support. Classifying Hezbollah a terrorist party does not mean Lebanon.” Yet, Masri voiced fears about the possibility of the U.S. imposing economic sanctions on Lebanon if the government dithered on moving to curb Hezbollah’s role in Lebanese politics. In addition to 13 elected MPs, Hezbollah has three ministers in the new government including the health portfolio, which has one of the largest budgets. “If the U.S. insists on its call to rein in Hezbollah, there are fears that Washington might extend the economic sanctions already imposed on the party to Lebanon’s economist and financial sectors by tightening measures and its monetary policy with Lebanese banks,” he said. Citing U.S. President Donald Trump’s tweet Thursday that it was time to recognize Israeli “sovereignty” over Syria’s Israeli-occupied Golan Heights, Masri warned that punitive U.S. measures against Lebanon, if it failed to stand up against Hezbollah, might target Lebanese lands occupied by Israel such as the Shebaa Farms, Kfar Shuba hills and the village of Ghajar. “I don’t rule out such U.S. measures under the Trump administration,” he said. Political analyst Talal Atrissi said Pompeo’s anti-Hezbollah diatribe would lead nowhere in Lebanon, stressing that the Lebanese government could not take measures to restrain the party. “There are political understandings and settlements in which Hezbollah is a main partner,” Atrissi, a Lebanese University lecturer with expertise on Iran and the Middle East, told The Daily Star. “The Lebanese government cannot fulfill the U.S. demand because it is a recipe to sectarian strife and will lead to the breakup of the government.” Atrissi said none of Lebanon’s main political parties, including the Future Movement, would accept Pompeo’s speech which, he said, was “inciting” the Lebanese against Hezbollah. “Therefore, Pompeo’s speech will not have any impact on internal stability,” he added. Atrissi ruled out the possibility of Washington clamping economic sanctions on Lebanon over Hezbollah’s growing role in the government. “The Americans might exert some pressure on the Lebanese government, but they are against undermining the country’s stability and economy because this will neither serve their interests, nor the regional situation, due to the presence of over 1 million Syrian refuges in Lebanon and UNIFIL in the south,” Atrissi said. A similar view was put forward by Imad Salamey, professor of political science at the Lebanese American University. “Pompeo’s statement is part of an escalating rhetoric against Hezbollah and Iran, but has little impact on internal Lebanese stability as the anti-Hezbollah camp is in disarray while the U.S. is withdrawing from Syria and losing influence in Turkey,” Salamey told The Daily Star. He ruled out any U.S. fight against Hezbollah. “There are no reasons to believe that the status quo is undergoing any serious challenges. Lebanon’s institutions are in a working order and reflect the balance of power between the different political groups,” Salamey said, adding: “It is highly doubtful that the U.S. is in a position to wage a major fight against Hezbollah, nor its domestic opponents.” “Neither the U.S, nor the Lebanese government has much leverage over Hezbollah’s activities in Lebanon. Sanctions may create some irritation but cannot stop the party’s major operations,” Salamey said. “Hezbollah will accuse the U.S. of attempts to create internal strife to cover its losses in Syria.”