By Andrew Quinn

Reuters
 
Bahrainis watch U.S. President Barack Obama's speech on the Middle East live Thursday evening, May 19, 2011, while chatting at a small farm near the Shiite Muslim village of Malkiya, Bahrain.

WASHINGTON: U.S. President Barack Obama signaled to autocratic Gulf allies on Thursday that he would not push too hard for political changes they fear may threaten their survival despite U.S. support for democratic reforms across the Middle East.

Obama used his closely watched speech on U.S. Middle East policy to urge Bahrain's embattled ruling family to open up real dialogue with the opposition and press Yemen's president to make good on promises to transfer power.
And he pledged U.S. backing for democratic and human rights values in countries in transition such as Egypt and Tunisia and in those battling for change like Libya and Syria -- as well as a new push for peace talks between Israel and the Palestinians.

But Obama did not mention Saudi Arabia -- the conservative monarchy at the heart of the Arab world -- and indicated the United States was not ready to further strain alliances built on oil, counter-terrorism and opposition to Iran.

"Not every country will follow our particular form of representative democracy, and there will be times when our short-term interests do not align perfectly with our long-term vision of the region," Obama said.
Political analysts said Obama's speech reflected the hard reality that Saudi Arabia, which provides 12 percent of U.S. crude oil imports, and its Sunni Gulf allies are vital to U.S. interests during a time of profound change.

"There is a very delicate balancing act," said Edward Djerejian, a former U.S. ambassador to Syria and Israel. "This is a reality. And I think the omission of ... Saudi Arabia is a part of this reality," he added.
Rights activists have criticized the U.S. response on Bahrain -- home of the U.S. Navy's Fifth Fleet -- after the U.S.-allied Sunni royal family invited troops in from its Sunni neighbors to quash protests by members of the island's Shi'ite majority.

At least 29 people have been killed in Bahrain since the protests started in February, inspired by Arab pro-democracy revolts that ousted the autocratic rulers of Egypt and Tunisia.
Hundreds of people have been arrested and dozens put on trial following the unrest.
Bahrain's government says the unrest was fomented by Shi'ite-ruled Iran -- a country both the United States and the Gulf monarchies see as a dangerously destabilizing power with nuclear ambitions. But some U.S. officials and private analysts say the protests were home-grown, at least initially.

Obama sought to measure his message on Bahrain, assuring the kingdom's rulers the United States continues to support them and acknowledging their assertion that Iran had sought to take advantage of the turmoil.
But he also publicly pressed for more reforms, saying "mass arrests and brute force" would not work.
"The only way forward is for the government and opposition to engage in a dialogue, and you can't have a real dialogue when parts of the peaceful opposition are in jail," he said.

Jon Alterman of the Center for Strategic and International Studies said Obama was seeking to show Bahrain -- and by extension Saudi Arabia -- the United States could support its government while still promoting reform.
"Bahrain is clearly one of the hardest problems. It makes the U.S. seem the most hypocritical. It endangers our very important ties with the naval base there. And I thought it was a very careful effort to clarify that."

Some analysts said Obama's balancing act may grow more difficult over time, particularly if Washington and Riyadh see their interests diverging on the broader question of democratic change in the Middle East. The Saudis were appalled and unnerved when Obama helped force Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak, a long-time U.S. ally, from power.

"We are on a trajectory where (the United States and Saudi Arabia) are actually moving apart," said Salman Shaikh, director of the Brookings Doha Center, adding that Obama's support for everything from popular protest movements to women's rights could deepen the divide.
"The Saudis and others are thinking hard about their alignment, and this speech will do nothing but continue us on that path," he said.