Date: Nov 23, 2018 Source: The Daily Star Lebanon marks 75th birthday as it waits for 75th Cabinet Benjamin Redd| The Daily Star BEIRUT: Two things are sure to happen Thursday. First, Lebanon’s politicians will celebrate 75 years of independence. Second, those same politicians will continue to seek some way out of an impasse that has left the country without a fully empowered government for exactly half a year. When a new government is formed, it will be Lebanon’s 75th since independence. On average, that is, Cabinets in Lebanon last just a year. The statistic is jarring not just for its horological simplicity, but also for the implications for long-term planning or any hope of coherent policy. Look closer, however, and the rise and fall of Lebanese governments becomes a guide to the nuances of the country’s history. One might expect, for instance, that the harj-wa-marj of the 1975-90 Civil War would translate into short, unstable governments. Yet the war saw just eight Cabinets in the 14 years until the Taif Accord, the 1989 political settlement that ended the conflict, meaning each government lasted 1.75 years. In the 32 years prior to the war, there were 49 governments, with the average government lasting just two-thirds of a year. And in the 19 years after Taif, there were 17 Cabinets, each lasting an average of 1.1 years. Cabinet numbers for this article were drawn from the prime minister’s office, which counts Michel Aoun’s government of 1988 and its rival formed by Salim Hoss in 1989. It does not separately count Hoss’ government of 1987 since no new government was formed; Hoss was appointed to replace Prime Minister Rachid Karami after the latter’s assassination. Taif didn’t just end the war; it redistributed power from the Christian president who could appoint and dismiss Cabinets and ministers at will to the Sunni-led government. “The president had almost dictatorial powers before 1989,” historian Kamal Dib says. “The moment you took away the powers from [such] an essential figure, that’s when instability crept in.” But the pre-Taif era was not marked by Maronite presidents ruling with an iron fist. In practice, they had to consult with the country’s other centers of power. “You had the text of the Constitution saying that the president appoints the [Cabinet], then chooses the prime minister from among them,” says Lara Karam Boustany, a constitutional law expert and professor at Saint Joseph University. “But in practice, that wasn’t the way it was done. “[The president] would take the advice of MPs, then appoint a [prime minister], and with him, he would appoint the ministers. Taif transformed what had been a norm into a written text,” she says. In pre-Taif times, “the president should [theoretically] choose the strongest Sunni,” Dib says. “If you appoint a strong Sunni, than you have someone that the Sunnis will follow.” Strong Sunnis have dominated the prime minister’s office. Despite having 74 governments since independence, Lebanon has seen only 25 prime ministers. And just four men – Rachid Karami, Rafik Hariri, Salim Hoss and Riad al-Solh – have ruled the country for half of its independence. Karami towers over all others. When he was assassinated in 1987, he was leading his 10th government. The scion of a leading Tripoli family, he ruled a total of 12 and a half years over a period spanning more than 30 years. Every president from Camille Chamoun to Amine Gemayel appointed him premier sooner or later, except one. Powerful Sunni figures like Karami “could stand up to the Maronite president,” Dib says. This often led to political and sometimes actual fighting, contributing to government instability. And the sheer number of Cabinets in pre-Civil War Lebanon – 49 – is enough to discredit the often idealized image of the nation as a Switzerland or Paris of the Middle East. “Throughout the period before 1975, it was always confrontation,” Dib says. As Lebanese know all too well, after the war was no different. But the conflict’s resolution brought a new dimension to government formation: supersized Cabinets. In early post-independence years, governments had ranged between six and 10 members, with the exception of a few three-men Cabinets, most of which were short-lived. The first 14-member Cabinet was at the end of Camille Chamoun’s term, but most governments stayed around eight to 10 until the end of Charles Helou’s term. Prior to Taif, there had been only two Cabinets with more than 18 members. Then in 1990, as factions came together after the war, the standard 30-member Cabinet was born. The format has dominated governments since, only a third of which have begun with fewer members. “You have to satisfy all the factions, which means more fragmentation in the political process and in society as well,” says Jawad Adra, the founder and managing partner of Information International, a consultancy. “We are components, not citizens in a state.” The reason for the fracturing is embedded in the system, Dib says. First, every political leader wants to be in government. “They consider the Cabinet as a place to distribute [spoils],” he says. “In Lebanon, you go to the warlord or zaim. He’s the one to supply a place at university for your son or a job for your daughter.” And if one faction is excluded, problems arise. “If you leave them out, they cause trouble,” Dib says. “Even small groups. If you leave out Talal Arslan, then a lot of trouble comes from this. “If you leave out Sleiman Frangieh, a lot of trouble comes from this.” Meanwhile, more ministers means extra salaries and spending at a time of financial hardship, while vastly complicating both Cabinet decision-making and the government formation process itself. After Taif, and especially after the Syrian withdrawal in 2005, this has contributed to lengthier and lengthier waits for Cabinet formation. Fouad Siniora took 19 days to form his first government in the wake of the 2005 elections. His second, formed after the 2008 Doha Accord, took 44 days. Saad Hariri’s and Najib Mikati’s governments of 2009 and 2011 each took about four and a half months. And then, Tammam Salam took more than 10 months to form his 2014 government. While forming Hariri’s second government was thus a relatively quick affair at just 45 days, his third seems to be slipping back to the trendline. Saturday will mark six months since he was designated to form a government. Lebanese celebrating 75 years of independence Thursday must wonder when their 75th government will arrive.