By Sylvia Westall

Reuters

TUNIS: Renewed street protests in the Tunisian capital have put pressure on authorities to hold elections in two months’ time even if this could risk more instability in the long run.
Smaller, less mobilized parties have misgivings about the timetable for the vote, which will elect an assembly to rewrite the Constitution.

Others worry Tunisia is ill-prepared to hold a country-wide democratic ballot after decades of autocracy.
But with tensions high ahead of the July 24 vote, anything more than a small delay could trigger further unrest in a country still trying to restore order after the January overthrow of president Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali.
Police dispersed scores of protesters with tear gas in Tunis Sunday after four days of demonstrations and arrested around 600 across the country, including in overnight raids. An overnight curfew has been in place since last week.
Protesters fear the interim government may go back on its promise to help lead Tunisia toward democracy after decades of one-party rule.
“The election needs to be done on July 24, they need to work toward this so that there is a stabilization,” law professor Kais Said said.

Prime Minister Beji Caid Sebsi has raised the possibility the vote could be delayed because of technical difficulties but he was quick to issue reassurances on Tunisian television that authorities were aiming for the scheduled date.
A warning from a former interior minister there would be a coup d’etat if the Islamist group Ennahda won was the trigger for the latest protests.
“There is still a very strong revolutionary atmosphere in Tunisia,” Jean-Baptiste Gallopin at consultancy Control Risks said. “Any move that is perceived as an attempt by elements of the former elite to derail the transition process toward democracy is immediately met with reaction from the street.”
It was Tunisia’s political mobilization – leading to the overthrow of Ben Ali on Jan. 14 – which inspired similar protests across the Arab world.

But the country of 10 million lacks the energy resources of its neighbors and says it needs billions of dollars in foreign loans to help it emerge from the turmoil which hit its job market and tourism hard.
Markets however would probably be more forgiving of a small delay and might actually prefer it, said strategist Richard Segal at banking group Jefferies. A quick transition aimed at ushering in stability may in fact do the opposite in the long run.
“The worst scenario would be a rushed process that leads to instability,” Segal said, speaking of transitions in general. “In fact, some investors may welcome a slow transition, because this would reduce the risk of near term negative shocks.”

Ennahda, led by moderate Muslim scholar Rachid Ghannouchi and banned under Ben Ali, may benefit from a shorter run-up to the Tunisia vote because it is more mobilized than other parties.
It is expected to poll well in the south where unemployment runs even higher than the national average of 14 percent.
Some of the smaller groups – around 60 parties in total will be competing for votes – say the timing means there is an uneven playing field ahead of the election.
“It makes sense to postpone the election,” said independent political analyst Slaheddin Jourchi, who thinks it would be wise to delay the vote to October or November despite the short-term risks this might pose.
“It is very difficult to organize elections in the next two months, the parties are not ready. The process needs time.”