Jan. 25, 2012, will be celebrated in Egypt as the first anniversary of the “revolution,” when a popular uprising erupted and eventually ended the rule of longtime President Hosni Mubarak.
 
Perhaps it would be more appropriate to reflect on this milestone, rather than celebrate it.
 
There are certainly positive aspects to Egypt’s one-year mark. After all, an untenable situation finally collapsed, as Mubarak appeared determined to ensure that his son Gamal would succeed him, despite all of the signs that the public would not accept such a scenario. Competitive elections have been held, and the decades-long clampdown on multi-party politics appears to have ended. The driving force behind these changes was the Egyptian people themselves, who relentlessly took to the streets, in the face of state brutality, to demand that their voices be heard.
 
But aside from these bright spots, Egypt faces a set of stern challenges and worrying developments as it approaches Jan. 25 one year on.
 
The head of the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces, Field Marshal Hussein Tantawi, used the occasion of the anniversary to make what he probably thought was a significant declaration: the lifting of martial law.
 
But the all-important caveat remained in place; acts of “thuggery” would not be covered. This term is purposely vague, like “terror,” and the exception defeats the whole purpose of ending emergency rule in the first place; there will always be a category that officials can brand as being outside the law.
 
Meanwhile, Egypt’s new parliament has convened to elect a new speaker and top deputies. The Muslim Brotherhood and the Salafist Movement claimed two out of these three spots, including the important speaker’s post. The challenge here appeared during the very outset, when a Muslim Brotherhood MP sought to modify the oath of office, by adding a religious reference. Chairing the session was a member of the liberal Wafd Party, as the body’s eldest member, and he sternly told the lawmaker to drop the additions.
 
It was an alarming signal that Islamist movements are intent on introducing divisive changes into Egyptian political life, when more serious challenges await.
 
The economy of Egypt is in freefall and since stability remains a problem, there is little hope that the important sector of tourism will recover soon. Foreign investment also requires a level of stability and coherent public policy, so until a new Constitution and full civilian rule appear, little incentive exists for foreign parties to risk their money.
 
The Supreme Council of the Armed Forces continues to inspire anxiety and anger for large parts of the public. No major figures from the former regime have been held accountable yet, and the public continues to doubt the military will give up its grip on political life.
 
There is much to think about on Jan. 25, but little cause for celebration.