BEIRUT: Prime Minister Saad Hariri’s decision to postpone his resignation could be the result of local actors expressing willingness to find some politically palatable compromises and the outcome of international political maneuvers to stabilize the Lebanese government, analysts said Wednesday.

Hariri Wednesday agreed to postpone handing in his resignation at the request of President Michel Aoun during a meeting at Baabda Palace following Independence Day celebrations in central Beirut. The Prime Minister returned to Lebanon Tuesday evening, nearly three weeks after announcing his resignation in a televised speech from Riyadh.

Political analyst Talal Atrissi said that a speech by Sayyed Hasan Nasrallah last Monday was set to have a positive impact on Hariri’s call for Lebanon’s dissociation from regional crises.

“Saudi Arabia has a problem in Yemen and it considers Hezbollah to be part of this problem,” he told The Daily Star. “I think this is what needs to be discussed under the title of dissociation.”

Atrissi voiced optimism, saying that – despite things still being complicated – the situation might be reaching a solution.

“I think that Sayyed Nasrallah paved the way for [these discussions by saying that] Hezbollah is not in Yemen ... and this facilitates things for Hariri,” he added.

According to Atrissi, Hezbollah won’t accept a dictate on its political discourse. However, he argued that Nasrallah’s comments on Yemen might have contributed to Hariri’s decision to postpone his resignation, in that it shows a willingness to cooperate.

Sami Nader, director of the Levantine Institute for Strategic Affairs, also said he thinks that Nasrallah’s speech may indicate that there is room for conversation. He also said that the freeze of the resignation could be down to the regional and international political discussions since Hariri’s announcement. “It is obvious that this is a diplomatic initiative led by France, which Egypt joined, to try and save the government,” Nader told The Daily Star.

“The freeze of the resignation gives them the time to see if [this] diplomatic initiative can provide solution – meaning a guarantee that Hezbollah will take some distance from the wars in Yemen and in Syria,” he added.

According to Nader, no parties have an interest in seeing the government collapse, including Hezbollah. By contrast, Hezbollah knows that forming a new government without the current political alliances that grants the group the same benefits would not be an easy task to accomplish, the analyst added.

However, Nader said that Hariri agreeing to retract his resignation would be dependent on Hezbollah accepting the official policy of dissociation from regional conflicts. Speaker of Parliament Nabih Berri Wednesday said that officials were ready to offer the prime minister assurance that Lebanon will uphold the policy.

Whether or not Hezbollah will make concessions considered sufficient by Hariri and by extension Saudi Arabia, however, is still to be seen.

Nader said that “chances are high” that Hezbollah will give compromise on a few, non-essential issues.

According to the analyst, Nasrallah’s Monday speech– in which he denied being responsible for the missile fired from Yemen towards Saudi Arabia – is, in reality, an implicit pledge that there wouldn’t be repeat incidents in the future.

“At the same time [Nasrallah reaffirmed Hezbollah’s] right to hold arms, which is a subject causing deep divide, and he did not show any signs of stepping back,” Nader said. “So in a way, he said that he would withdraw from the GCC [countries] but did not give in to other issues that have created divisions since 2005.”

Meanwhile, Imad Salamey, director of the Institute for Social Justice and Conflict Resolution at the Lebanese American University, said the current political developments have “sent a pretty strong message and [Hariri] can now negotiate from a position of strength.” Additionally, the perspective of an escalation is not an appealing alternative for all parties.

“At the moment, the regional escalation of conflict between Iran and Saudi Arabia is increasingly emerging as a zero-sum game. I don’t think Iran and Hezbollah want to push the conflict towards further escalation,” Salamey told The Daily Star.

The analyst predicted Hezbollah will make concessions in order to keep the government standing, including softening its rhetoric – especially towards Saudi Arabia – and avoiding future involvement in Yemen.

Hariri’s strong stand in favor of the policy of disassociation was also coupled this week by the Arab League’s again hard position towards Hezbollah, which reclassified the group a terrorist organization during a meeting in Cairo Sunday.

Local media quoted Berri as saying the Arab League had indirectly accused the Lebanese government of being complicit in Hezbollah’s actions. Analysts regarded the Arab League’s move as being intended to give a wake-up call to the Lebanese government.

According to Salamey, now that “Hariri made clear that Hezbollah’s weapons in the region are really not acceptable and have to be negotiated,” business in Cabinet was likely to continue as usual in the coming weeks, while negotiations are underway.

From the constitutional point of view, however, whether Hariri’s resignation was valid in the first place is uncertain. Former Interior Minister Ziad Baroud said that the Lebanese Constitution is not clear on whether Hariri’s resignation was ever valid and whether he is entitled to postpone it. Other analysts and experts, however, have disagreed. The fact that the Constitution doesn’t give specific instructions on the process of resigning leaves something of a debate in the interpretation.

“The Lebanese Constitution doesn’t talk about [...] the form of the resignation, whether it needs to be [presented in] a handwritten letter or whether it is directly accepted [orally],” said Baroud told The Daily Star.

Baroud takes this to mean that the televised speech given on Nov. 4 may not be a binding declaration of resignation. However, Lara Karam Boustany, an attorney and professor of law at Saint Joseph University in Beirut, previously told The Daily Star shortly after Hariri’s announcement that: “[The Constitution] doesn’t say he has to do it in writing. ... As soon as he says it or writes it down or says it to the press, it’s valid.” She explained that any form of the announcement was valid to prevent a repeat of the incident in 1988 when Salim al-Hoss resigned and then changed his mind, leading to two competing governments emerging.

Baroud also said that a further matter of debate would be whether a resignation requires the approval by the president to become effective or whether it becomes effective when announced orally. It must also be noted that Lebanon’s Constitution is often loosely worded and where there is debate, previous precedent is taken into account as well as political consensus.

Given the present state of affairs, Baroud argued that such considerations could be put aside and that Cabinet’s work would proceed as usual given the consensus to keep the current government going. “To a certain extent, we can say that, after today’s announcement, we are not [standing] before an [immediate] resignation,” the former minister said.