FRI 29 - 3 - 2024
 
Date: Sep 5, 2011
Source: The Daily Star
Key political risks to watch in Saudi Arabia

REUTERS

RIYADH: The world's No. 1 oil exporter faces the twin challenges of creating jobs for a young population at a time of unrest in the Arab world, and pursuing economic reforms amid uncertainty over a royal succession. 
The stability of Saudi Arabia is of global importance since  the kingdom sits on more than a fifth of oil reserves, is a major owner of dollar assets and acts as a Middle East lynchpin of U.S. security policy. 
It is also home to the biggest Arab stock market. 


King Abdullah, who is around 88, has unveiled more than $130 billion worth of job-creating projects for infrastructure, housing, security and other areas. 


But this apparent effort to insulate the kingdom from popular unrest buffeting the Arab world has not stopped activists, including liberals, Shi'ite Muslims and Islamists, organising petitions for more political freedom. Some Saudi women have begun to challenge a driving ban.


The Sunni Muslim-led absolute monarchy, which has no elected parliament, has avoided the kind of mass uprisings that have shaken other Arab countries this year. But Shi'ites in the kingdom's oil-producing east have staged a number of protests. 


A Facebook call for protests on March 11 in the face of massive security measures largely fell on deaf ears among Saudis in Riyadh. 


Saudi Arabia has been ruled by the Al Saud family for 79  years in alliance with clerics adhering to the austere Wahhabi  school of Islam. Many powerful clerics oppose some of the social reforms the king started. 


However, slowing down reforms intended to modernise education might affect government plans to create jobs -- unemployment last year reached 10 percent. 
And with around 70 percent of Saudi Arabia's almost 19  million people under the age of 30, the pressure to find them  gainful employment is huge.  


SUCCESSION 
King Abdullah returned home in February after spending three  months abroad for medical treatment, during which he underwent  two surgeries after a blood clot complicated a slipped disc. 
Crown Prince Sultan, only slightly younger than Abdullah, is also in poor health. 


The throne could eventually go to Interior Minister Prince Nayef, a conservative who could put the brakes on some reforms started by Abdullah, analysts say. Nayef, around 77 years old, was promoted to second deputy prime minister in 2009. 


He has supported the religious police who roam the streets to make sure unrelated men and women do not mix in public and  that shops close during prayer times. 


To regulate succession, Abdullah has set up an "allegiance  council" of sons and grandsons of the kingdom's founder but it  is not clear when, or how, it will work in practice. 


So far, only sons of the kingdom's founder, Abdul-Aziz Ibn Saud, have ascended the throne, and the remaining 20 or so are mostly in their 70s and 80s. Leaders have been reluctant to hand senior jobs over to the next generation. 


In July, King Abdullah appointed his son Abdul-Aziz to the post of deputy foreign minister, a move that appears to strengthen the king's hand in Saudi foreign policy amid jostling for positions among the senior princes. 


Other prominent grandsons of founder Abdul-Aziz who are seen as well-placed for future leadership include Nayef's son Mohammed, who as the anti-terror chief, survived an al Qaeda suicide attack in 2009, and Sultan's son Khaled, the assistant defence minister. 


WHAT TO WATCH: 
- The health of senior royal family members and their  involvement in day-to-day affairs of running the kingdom 
- Any sign of abrupt cancellation of scheduled programmes  such as foreign visits by Saudi dignitaries; sudden trips by Saudi princes to visit an ailing fellow prince abroad 
- Any signs that the elder generation is passing on more  responsibility to the grandsons of Ibn Saud, and to which ones  


REFORMS 
Officials who back Abdullah say they fear that young Saudis  frustrated over their failure to find work could provide  potential recruits to violent Islamists who want to overthrow  the House of Saud. 
Abdullah started some narrow reforms to overhaul education  and the judiciary after taking office in 2005 but diplomats say  his reform drive has run out of steam. 


He has not altered the political system of an absolute  monarchy that analysts say has fuelled dissent, with democracy  activists, liberals and Islamists calling on the king in  petitions to allow elections and more freedom. 
Abdullah's handouts focused on social largesse and a boost  to security and religious police, but included no political  change.  Although the kingdom said earlier this year it would hold  long-delayed municipal elections, no timetable has been set and women will not be allowed to vote. With no elected assembly, Saudi Arabia has no political parties. 


Saudi analysts say the king could change some veteran ministers or call fresh municipal elections, a plan that was shelved in 2009 due to the opposition of conservative princes.  


WHAT TO WATCH: 
- Any signs of protests or petitions by activists demanding  political reforms 
- Any signs of a cabinet reshuffle or plan to hold fresh  municipal elections 
- Any approval of a much-delayed mortgage law, which aims to  ease pressure on the housing market 


SHI'ITE MUSLIMS 
Saudi Arabia, a Sunni-led regional diplomatic heavyweight, has sought to contain Iran's influence since the 2003 U.S.-led invasion of Iraq produced a Shi'ite-led government in Baghdad. 
With majority Shi'ites in neighbouring Bahrain having protested against the Sunni government there, analysts say there is a risk that unrest could spread to Saudi Arabia's own Shi'ite minority, which lives in the oil-producing Eastern Province just across from Bahrain. 


The Saudis sent more than a 1,000 soldiers into Bahrain to protect government facilities. The kingdom announced a drawdown of troops in June, after Bahrain lifted its state of emergency. 
Shi'ites in the east have held a number of protests calling for prisoner releases and a withdrawal of Saudi forces sent to  Bahrain to help put down the unrest. 


Saudi Shi'ites have long complained about marginalisation and have started small protests to demand the release of prisoners they say have been detained without trial. Riyadh denies any charges of discrimination. 
Riyadh also shares U.S. suspicions that Iran aims to develop nuclear weapons. The United States and Israel have not ruled out pre-emptive military action against Iran, which says it is developing nuclear energy only to generate electricity. 


Saudi Arabia has publicly tried to stay out of the dispute over Tehran's nuclear programme but a series of U.S. diplomatic  cables released by whistle-blowing website WikiLeaks portrayed Riyadh as pressing for a U.S. attack. 
King Abdullah was said to have "frequently exhorted the U.S.  to attack Iran to put an end to its nuclear programme," one cable said. 


WHAT TO WATCH: 
- Any signs of further protests and a deterioration in  Eastern Province 
- Any Saudi diplomatic moves to tighten sanctions on Iran  and any signs of Saudi facilities offered for military action  


AL QAEDA THREAT 
Saudi Arabia, with the help of foreign experts, managed to  quash an al Qaeda campaign from 2003 to 2006 that targeted  expatriate housing compounds, embassies and oil facilities. 
Riyadh destroyed the main cells within its borders. But many  militants slipped into neighbouring Yemen where al Qaeda  regrouped to form a Yemen-based regional wing that seeks, among  other things, the fall of the U.S.-allied Saudi royal family. 


The Yemen-based al Qaeda arm shot into the global spotlight  after it claimed responsibility for a failed attempt to bomb a  U.S.-bound passenger plane in December 2009.

 



 
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