FRI 26 - 4 - 2024
 
Date: Jun 1, 2017
Source: The Daily Star
Lebanon: In the eye of the storm, will Hezbollah emerge intact?
Hussein Dakroub| The Daily Star
BEIRUT: Is Hezbollah endlessly fighting fires? Since it was established in 1982 with the declared aim of fighting Israeli occupation of south Lebanon, Hezbollah, funded, armed and trained by Iran, has never faced a such a number of huge and tough challenges both at home and abroad as it is doing now, raising serious doubts about its ability to emerge intact as it has done before in its devastating wars with Israel and political battles with opponents in Lebanon.

The heavy political, economic and military pressures the Party of God is coming under today, mainly from the United States and its Arab allies – best manifested in the unprecedented Arab Islamic American summit held in the Saudi capital of Riyadh on May 20-21 in the presence of U.S. President Donald Trump – is putting the powerful Shiite party at bay. It is forcing it to re-evaluate its priorities in order to weather the storm that might threaten its very existence as a resistance movement bent on fighting Israeli occupation in Lebanon and takfiri groups in Syria.

During the two-day summit, which brought together more than 50 Arab and Muslim leaders, both Trump and Saudi King Salman bin Abdel-Aziz lambasted Iran and Hezbollah, blaming them for destabilizing the volatile region as a result of their interference in the conflicts in Syria, Iraq, Yemen and Bahrain.

“The Riyadh summit clearly indicates a firm Saudi-American decision to confront Iran’s growing expansion in the region, as well as its military arms, above all Hezbollah,” a political source told The Daily Star.

Saudi Arabia and Iran’s long-standing rivalry that began with the 1979 Islamic Revolution, which overthrew the pro-West shah of Iran and brought religious leaders to power in Tehran, has played out in proxy wars across the region and heightened Sunni-Shiite tensions in the Arab world. Riyadh and Tehran back opposing sides in Yemen, Syria, Iraq, Bahrain and Lebanon.

The escalation of the Saudi-U.S. tirade against Hezbollah came in a joint statement issued by the two countries in which Washington and Riyadh underlined the “importance of backing the Lebanese state to extend its sovereignty over all its territories, disarm terrorist organization like Hezbollah and place all [non-state] weapons under the supervision of the Lebanese Army.”

In a quick response, defiant Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hasan Nasrallah scoffed at the Riyadh summit’s decisions, saying his party has become stronger than ever before both in men and equipment and will not be deterred by bellicose statements issued by the leaders who met in Saudi Arabia.

“The Riyadh summit issued an intimidation against Iran and its allies. But this intimidation is worthless,” Nasrallah said in a televised speech on “Resistance and Liberation Day” on May 25, which marks the 17th anniversary of Israel’s withdrawal from most of south Lebanon and ended an 18-year occupation of a border enclave.

“The Riyadh summit did not carry anything new. There is nothing to frighten us. The resistance [Hezbollah] will not be frightened by threats, a war, fighting or sanctions. The resistance is today stronger than at any time before both in men and equipment and in determination and faith,” Nasrallah said. “Hezbollah and other resistance movements know the path they have chosen. We have been on the list of terrorism and sanctions since the 1980s.”

But Hilal Khashan, a professor of political science at the American University of Beirut, said he disagreed with the theory that Hezbollah is facing its toughest challenge ever, recalling that the party had managed to survive Israel’s 34-day war on Lebanon in 2006.

“Although its involvement in Syria, along with the tug-of-war between Saudi Arabia and Iran, is putting it under regional and international pressure. This does not mean that Hezbollah is facing an existential threat,” Khashan told The Daily Star.

“Hezbollah is the most efficient military player on the ground in Syria. This is a fact. Hezbollah’s presence in Syria is the result of an international, mainly Russian-American, understanding,” he said. “Israel will not be able to destroy Hezbollah because it is a grass-roots movement. It is a permanent actor in Lebanese politics and a major military player in Syria.”

Khashan dismissed the anti-Hezbollah decisions at the Riyadh summit as “noise.”

“The Riyadh summit decisions will not meaningfully affect Hezbollah’s standing in any way at the financial, military and political levels,” he said. Noting that the party had made “strategic military achievements” in Syria, Khashan said: “Hezbollah is part of a front that includes Syria, Iran and Russia.”

He added that Trump’s anti-Hezbollah rhetoric will not affect the party. “Trump is under fire in the U.S. [over alleged Russian meddling in the 2016 presidential elections]. There are already questions on whether he would be able to stay in office,” Khashan said. He added: “Trump’s trip to Saudi Arabia was a financial transaction worth $380 billion.”

The anti-Iran and anti-Hezbollah decisions at the Riyadh summit come on top of a U.S. draft legislation seeking to impose tougher sanctions on Hezbollah and its affiliates and allies in an attempt to dry up the party’s financial resources.

A number of members of the U.S. House of Representatives created a draft for a bill entitled “Hezbollah International Financing Prevention Amendments Act of 2017” that is mainly aimed at cutting off all forms of financial support to the party, which is labeled by Washington as a “terrorist organization.”

The new draft, which has not yet been introduced in the House, has reportedly added new entities, such as the Amal Movement, to the list of sanctioned parties. A similar draft is said to be making the rounds in the U.S. Senate.

A U.S. official said Washington would be “firm in implementing the sanctions against Hezbollah, its supporters and [other] terror groups.”

“There is no doubt that Hezbollah is the most dangerous terror group in the region,” U.S. regional spokesman Nathaniel Tek told reporters on the sidelines of the Riyadh summit.

U.S. officials have recently called on Hezbollah to withdraw from Syria, a call repeatedly made in recent years by Arab Gulf countries and some Lebanese political parties, mainly the Future Movement.

The Future Movement’s parliamentary bloc praised the Riyadh summit and reiterated its call on Hezbollah to withdraw from Syria and come under the umbrella of the state. “The bloc calls on Hezbollah to give priority to its national interests in Lebanon, beginning with a review of its political strategies by withdrawing completely from Syria,” the bloc said in a statement.

However, the proposed sanctions have caused alarm among politicians and the banking sector in Lebanon. President Michel Aoun has warned that the proposals could inflict harm on Lebanon and its people if passed without amendments.

A high-ranking Lebanese parliamentary and banking delegation has visited Washington for talks with U.S. officials in an attempt to curb punitive sanctions against individuals and groups suspected of having links with Hezbollah.

Nasrallah ridiculed the sanctions, saying sarcastically: “Let them [U.S.] take all our money deposited in banks in America, France, Britain, Belgium and Switzerland.”

Political analyst Qassem Kassir said Hezbollah is stronger now than before and will be able to overcome local, regional and international challenges. “Hezbollah has been facing internal and external tough challenges and pressures since it was founded. The biggest challenge that faced Hezbollah was in Israel’s war on Lebanon in 2006 amid an American and Israeli decision to destroy the party’s military infrastructure,” Kassir, an expert on Islamic movements, told The Daily Star.

“Hezbollah is currently facing a difficult situation and big challenges with the possibility of tightening the political, financial and even military noose on it through Israeli airstrikes on its positions in Syria,” he said.

“But Hezbollah is not weak. Thirty years after it was founded, Hezbollah has external extensions and is part of an axis that includes Iran, Syria and Russia,” Kassir said. “Hezbollah is not isolated or besieged at the regional and international levels. It has cards of strength in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and Yemen and maintains [limited political] relations with the European Union and the United Nations.”

At the root of Saudi and Arab Gulf hostility against Hezbollah and its master Iran, is the party’s deep involvement in the 6-year-old war in Syria alongside President Bashar Assad’s regime.

It is no secret that Saudi Arabia and its partners in the six-nation Gulf Cooperation Council – Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Oman and Bahrain – blame Iran and Hezbollah’s military intervention in the Syrian conflict for saving the Assad regime from collapse.

Since the conflict erupted in Syria in March 2011, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Turkey have been arming and funding some Syrian rebel groups fighting to topple Assad.

In response to its intervention in Syria, last year the GCC states labeled Hezbollah a “terrorist organization,” accusing it of creating chaos and discord in member states. The GCC states also warned their citizens against traveling to Lebanon and decided to expel Lebanese citizens suspected of having links to Hezbollah. Later, the 22-nation Arab League, reportedly under Saudi pressure, adopted a similar decision, branding Hezbollah a “terrorist organization.”

Last year, Saudi Arabia halted $4 billion in grants to the Lebanese Army and security forces in protest at perceived “hostile” stances against the kingdom linked to Hezbollah and Iran and Arab League and Islamic meetings.

In addition to the U.S., Canada and Australia have designated Hezbollah a “terrorist” group, while the European Union has blacklisted the party’s military wing.

Yet, Hezbollah appears today to be endlessly fighting fires. The party’s popularity in Lebanon and across the Arab world has taken a harsh beating, beginning with accusations of being behind the assassination of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri who was killed along with 21 others in a massive suicide bombing in Beirut in 2005.

Despite Hezbollah’s repeated denial of its involvement, the U.N.-backed Special Tribunal for Lebanon has indicted five party members in the killing. The STL has yet to issue its final verdict in the case.

Later, Hezbollah’s brief takeover of several Sunni neighborhoods of west Beirut in May 2008 in protest at a government decision to close down the party’s private telecommunications network dealt another major blow to its popularity.

Since then, Hezbollah has been accused by the Future Movement and its Christian allies of pointing its weapons internally, rather than against the Israeli enemy, to achieve political objectives.

The party’s use of its arms internally for the first time since the end of the 1975-90 Civil War has since prompted calls spearheaded by Prime Minister Saad Hariri for Hezbollah to disarm and surrender its arsenal to the Lebanese Army.

To this day, Hezbollah’s arsenal remains a sensitive and contentious issue that rival factions have agreed to shelve for now in order to avoid a new sectarian conflict.

Then came Hezbollah’s involvement in the Syrian war to deepen political divisions and fuel Sunni-Shiite tensions in Lebanon.

To avert sectarian strife, the Future Movement and Hezbollah have held several rounds of dialogue aimed at defusing tensions and shielding the country from the negative fallout of the neighboring conflict.

Once praised in Lebanon and the Arab world as a heroic resistance movement that stood up to Israel and championed the Palestinian cause as its own, the party has seen its popularity plummet across the region and has come under fire both at home and in Gulf states for its staunch support for Assad.

It is a far cry from the soaring popularity the party earned across the Arab and Muslim worlds when it forced, with its guerrilla war, Israel to withdraw from south Lebanon in May 2000.

Furthermore, Hezbollah has been criticized in Lebanon for spreading its influence far beyond the country’s border.

In addition to sending thousands of its fighters into Syria, Hezbollah has also sent military advisers to Iraq, and reportedly helped Iran-backed Houthi rebels rise to power in Yemen and threatened Bahrain for ignoring the Shiite majority’s demands for political reforms.

Nonetheless, the war in Syria has been very costly for Hezbollah in terms of its popularity and human lives. The Syrian conflict is bleeding Hezbollah of fighters and experienced military commanders. Top military leaders, including Mustafa Badreddine, have been killed either by rebel explosions, Israeli airstrikes or combat.

Hezbollah has lost more than an estimated 1,500 of its fighters in the Syria war since the party decided to join the fighting in 2013, compared to the 1,276 fighters killed during its 18-year guerrilla war with Israel.

With no letup in Syria, Hezbollah has been urged by Lebanese parties and Arab Gulf states to withdraw its fighters. But a defiant Nasrallah has not given the slightest hint of any imminent pullout, declaring that his party was capable of fighting on two fronts and has been making preparations for any potential war with Israel.

In addition to providing social and humanitarian services to its supporters, thus consolidating its power bases in south Lebanon, the Bekaa region and Beirut’s southern suburbs, Hezbollah has grown as a major regional military power to be reckoned with even by its archfoes, the U.S., Israel and Arab Gulf states.

With its massive arsenal of rockets, Hezbollah foiled Israel’s declared goal to destroy the party’s military infrastructure during the 2006 War in which about 1,200 Lebanese, most of them civilians, and 160 Israelis, mostly soldiers, were killed.

When the U.N. Resolution 1701 ended the 2006 War by imposing a “cessation of hostilities,” the party possessed 10,000 missiles.

Since then, Hezbollah has replenished its arsenal with more than 100,000 missiles, according to Western and Israeli reports.

Nasrallah, a polarizing and charismatic figure, has repeatedly boasted that the party’s massive arsenal of longer-range missiles can target all of Israel, including the nuclear facilities in Dimona and Tel Aviv, sending shivers down the spines of Israeli officials. Nasrallah’s threats have prompted Israeli leaders to classify Hezbollah as the greatest danger facing them.

Apprehensive of Hezbollah’s attempts to possess sophisticated weapons in preparation for any future war, Israel has carried out airstrikes in recent years which they say targets advanced arms convoys in Syria destined for the party. Israeli leaders have vowed to prevent advanced weapons transfers through Syria to Hezbollah.

“Hezbollah might come under strong Arab, regional and international political and financial pressures, but it is capable of confronting them and emerging unscathed,” Kassir said.



 
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