Thursday, March 31, 2011
Analysis

NICOSIA: Syrian President Bashar Assad dashed the hopes of his people Wednesday with a speech which failed to unveil the major reforms expected and left the country in a state of uncertainty, analysts said.
Syrian human rights lawyer Haitham Maleh warned that protests and a tough crackdown would go on.

“He said nothing,” Maleh told AFP by telephone. “We heard this speech before. They always say that they need to change and do something but in real fact, in practice nothing happened.”
Assad blamed conspirators for deadly unrest in Syria but declined to elaborate on promised reforms despite expectations he would lift a decades-old state of emergency.

“All the people were waiting to hear what he will say, what he will do … nothing” said Maleh, who says he spent eight years behind bars “for nothing, for my speech” until his release under a presidential pardon earlier this month.
Maleh, 80, who has worked for London-based human rights watchdog Amnesty International since 1989 and was involved in founding a Syrian rights group, was arrested on October 14, 2009 and questioned by a military tribunal over articles he had written

Bilal Saab, an Arab affairs analyst at the University of Maryland, told AFP: “Bashar’s speech was specifically designed to rescue his presidency and hold on to power.

“By dissolving his own Cabinet and offering some concessions, he is distancing himself from the regime and projecting an image of a reformer who is at odds with his government and who is stuck and trying to break free.
“Yet the road ahead is still fraught with danger and it may be too little too late,” he said.

Saab identified five major stumbling blocks to progress: the Sunni majority, the Muslim Brotherhood, senior leaders in his Baath party who could feel they had much to lose, some members of his own family who are opposed to change, and army commanders keen to retain their privileges.

“Faced with such political competition and potential threats, Bashar’s only ally in this fight for survival is a segment of the Syrian population whose real size is hard to determine,” Saab added.

In Washington a European diplomat told journalists on condition of anonymity: “He said that he would begin a process of reform, but we see nothing for the moment. And it’s not the first time that his acts were not in accordance with his words, so we are very cautious on this.”

The diplomat added: “What is also to be considered is the regime that would follow Assad. It’s not easy, you have some extremist networks. If it is to have Assad out and a pro-Iranian regime in, that would not be the goal.”
Maleh warned that Syrians would continue with strikes and street demonstrations, starting Friday, the Muslim day of prayer and rest, because the people are not ready to wait any longer to see results.

“Protests will continue. We said please. We said we need change, our freedom, we want democracy. Nothing changed. So the only other choice is to go to the streets.”
He warned that future protests could face the sort of violent response that met demonstrations in Daraa south of the capital earlier this month.

“We talk,” he said. “They attack us. All of this regime, from top to bottom, they do not want change. Arrests have not stopped since Assad came to power. Day by day, hour by hour, they arrest people. Nobody wants to hear us.”
Assad released 200 prisoners, mainly Islamists, as a concession to protest demands, but Maleh said there were still “more than 4,000 prisoners who were arrested for their ideas” in a country with 15 separate security agencies dedicated to monitoring and crushing dissent. – AFP