Fri, 18 February 2011
Raghida Dergham, New York

A rare opportunity prevails nowadays for the emergence of the “New Arab” who exercises the highest form of citizenry and insists on erasing the image of the Arab that the September 11 terrorist attacks produced on the international scene. Reasons for such optimism are generated by the young generation’s earth-shattering change in the Arab region towards replacing the phenomenon of mosques as political arenas by that of the Internet’s Social Media as the most significant political party of a new kind. If this orderly and organized rebellious generation manages to build cohesively with a clear vision and to establish state institutions, starting with ensuring a secular and democratic constitution, then one could bank on a bright future. Indeed, constructing requires patience, perseverance, lucidity and awareness of the intentions of those who are seasoned in confiscating power. It is unclear whether the urban civilian youth of the Arab revolution will triumph over the religious political trend on the long run – and this perhaps represents one of the most important challenges facing the emergence of the New Arab. The other challenge that might undercut the opportunity for the emergence of the New Arab lies in the path taken by the Youth Revolution and in its successive milestones following those of Tunisia and Egypt. If it succeeds in producing change only in the countries known as Moderates and are friends of the United States while it spares the countries known as the Defiant- most prominently amongst them Iran and Syria- the Defiant would have succeeded in preventing the emergence of New Arab. This New Arab would not be in their interest and could in fact represent a threat to them on the long term. And because this is a juncture of the utmost importance for shaping the future of Arabs, it is necessary for everyone without exception to break off from the methods of burying one’s head in the sand, preventing self-criticism and criticizing others. This is the moment for listening well, before it is too late. Indeed, there is every reason to sort out frankly what every country in the Arab region is required to do in light of the Youth Uprising. And the first thing regimes must do is to think of the youth who are revolting as a partner that deserves to be listened to and partnered with. Otherwise, the momentum of the new party – the party of the Internet and interaction through social media – could cause one earthquake after another in the whole of the Arab region and the wider Middle East.

US President Barack Obama is riding the wave of change and making use of every favorable opportunity to serve his electoral goals. To some he seems to be the source of inspiration for the Arab revolution of change, especially in his Cairo speech, and this is greatly exaggerated. There are also those who see him leading a new era for the United States – that of a neutral America. And then, of course, the America President is criticized by those who view his abandonment of a 30 year ally of the US in less than 30 days as an entrenchment of America’s reputation of rushing to abandon its friends – a reputation of “betrayal”. There are also those who believe that America’s interests – partly represented by Israel’s military superiority and by meeting the needs of the US military establishment – required the encouragement of change through making use of large American corporations such as Facebook and Google, as well as through Twitter, in order to reshuffle the existing regional order and shape a new regional order. Whatever the truth may be, the Obama Administration finds itself under the microscope and must closely examine the significance of its positions towards the milestones of the Youth Uprising so that it does not chase belatedly after what the earthquake leaves behind.

All eyes today are turned towards the Arab Maghreb region, the Gulf region, the Arabian Peninsula and Yemen, as well as towards Iran- and through it Lebanon- where escalation between Hezbollah and Israel falls within the framework of the Iranian regime’s welcome of diverting attention away from its attempts to stifle the uprising against it inside of Iran. And then there is Jordan and Palestine in light of the particular nature of the Palestinian-Jordanian relationship inside of Jordan.

The train of change, which left the station in the Arab Maghreb region, seems to be headed towards Libya, Algeria and Morocco, as well as Sudan. The idea of bequeathal of power was aborted by the January 25 revolution not only in Egypt, but also in Libya and Yemen.

Arab Africa is rising up on a daily basis, and its political map is witnessing a quick succession of fundamental transformations. Colonel Muammar Qaddafi may act stubbornly as did former President Hosni Mubarak, yet he might be wagering on what he considers to have been his “proper taming” of the Libyan people through breaking the back-bone of the Libyan personality and through the acrobatic concept of the “Jamahiriya”. We will not know for certain who will triumph in Libya – the Youth Uprising over the Jamahiriya, or the Colonel’s and the Jamahiriya’s acrobatics over the youth.

In Algeria, it is a different battle, especially as the ruling regime has set itself up as the security apparatus in the face of extremist Islamist movements. But the issue is corruption. Corruption has infested senior officials in the Algerian government, their siblings and other members of their families. If President Abdelaziz Bouteflika does not quickly shed off the 1970s mentality and take comprehensive and wide-ranging measures for reform, accountability and uprooting corruption, then Algeria is in grave danger. That is because change there will not be peaceful and civil – as it mostly was in Egypt and Tunisia. Indeed, the Algerian personality is tense and violent by nature, and Islamic extremism in Algeria is a reality that cannot be denied or underestimated.

In Morocco, King Mohammed VI may have no other choice but to listen to the advice of preserving the monarchy by modifying it- either into a constitutional monarchy or through any other kind of reform.

Sudan will not remain as it is especially after the South secedes and embarks on becoming an independent state and a member of the United Nations. Neither does the South have the means to prevent tribal infighting, nor does the North indicate readiness to continue to accept President Omar Al-Bashir who contributed to driving Sudan to the edge of the abyss.

Arab Asia in turn is rising. The events in Bahrain, whether they are of a sectarian nature or an expression of popular resentment, are events of the utmost importance because they are the spark that could ignite a phenomenon reaching other countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC). It is true that the relationship between citizens and monarchies in the Gulf region differs from the relationship between citizens and republics in terms of the traditions of loyalty to the king. Yet it is also true that what has taken place in Egypt has awoken everyone to the fact that what was considered impossible has become a reality, and at great speed.

A measure here to absorb the anger or a measure there to partially respond to demands is no longer sufficient. What is required at this stage are wide-ranging preemptive measures including laws that do not exclude entire segments of society and that guarantee the alternation of power. What is important is to avoid rehashing and to take all measures needed to prevent Islamist organizations from hijacking the democratic process and imposing a constitution that would ensure their holding on to power indefinitely.

Jordan is going through the predicament of change and King Abdullah II needs to regain his innovative thinking and to take measures that would prevent offering Jordan on a silver platter to fulfill Israel’s dream of turning Jordan into the alternative homeland for the Palestinians.

The Palestinians in turn must think of an unarmed civilian uprising within Israel and in the Palestinian Territories, especially in Gaza. Indeed, it is there the future of the Palestinians is hijacked. Inside Israel, a Palestinian civilian uprising would have a tremendous impact, as would a Palestinian civilian march to Jerusalem, asserting and extending the emergence of the New Arab.

All eyes today turn towards Iran, especially in light of the events in Bahrain on the one hand, and, on the other, the possibility of haphazard change taking place in Yemen, turning it into a starting point for change. There is increasing talk of Al-Qaeda meeting with Israel over the goal of weakening Saudi Arabia considered a major Arab power capable of confronting Israel. Such talk has begun to find its way in American forums and in the media; it requires paying heed and thinking of ways to deal with the repercussions of the current situation.

Indeed, the matter is fateful because the fall of any regime in the Gulf region will enhance the victories scored by Iran’s Khomeini Revolution. It is a fateful matter because the success of the regime in Iran at remaining safe from the uprising against it- either through repression or through diverting attention by provoking a crisis or a war between Lebanon and Israel- will lead to the victory of the alliance of the Defiant at the expense of the Moderates. At the point, the Obama Administration’s awakening to what it has done to moderation in the Arab region will be of no use. It will be too late for the possibility of the emergence of the New Arab who would define his own destiny himself. Then victorious will be those who have always wanted to dwarf the Arabs and tear them apart for the common interests between Iran and Israel.