By Rami G. Khouri

Tuesday, February 01, 2011

In the long-delayed modern Arab revolt for dignity, rights and freedom, Tunisia was the trigger, but Egypt is the prize. The Arab popular struggle against autocratic security and police states that was finally initiated earlier this month with the revolt that overthrew former Tunisian President Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali has reached a critical stage in Egypt. Events reached their tipping point Sunday and are likely to lead quickly to a political transition that replaces President Hosni Mubarak with a new leadership that more accurately reflects political sentiments in the country.

As happened in Tunisia, the revolt against Mubarak and his colleagues occurred very quickly, within a few weeks after young people demonstrated in the streets and called for the removal of the regime. Yet that daring challenge to a powerful police state reflected decades of mass humiliation among ordinary citizens who finally snapped, refusing to continue living in a system that denied them their basic rights as citizens. Protesters also want to change the 30-year-old rule of the Mubarak regime because it has been marked by sustained mediocrity in its governance, which in turn has resulted in Egypt’s pauperization and marginalization.

Five important developments Sunday combined to mark the beginning of the end of the Mubarak era. The first one started on the street, especially in Tahrir Square in central Cairo, though similar scenes occurred in other cities, making this a truly national revolt. Demonstrators defied the overnight curfew and held their ground, the police largely disappeared, and the army that replaced them made it clear that its main role was to preserve public order and protect state property, rather than shoot demonstrators to protect the regime.

This combination of popular determination and fearlessness in the face of the state’s security apparatus, along with the police and army’s refusal to shoot their fellow citizens, marked a critical tipping point for both sides. The demonstrators realized that their cause was widely supported by other Egyptians, and the security agencies made it clear to the street and the presidential palace that this situation would only be resolved by political negotiations, rather than police brutality.

The second significant development was Mubarak’s naming of Gen. Omar Suleiman as his vice president, providing a trusted figure who is respected by the armed forces. Having a vice president in place – after leaving the post vacant for the past three decades – sent the signal that Mubarak probably realized that his days in power were numbered. The lingering problem, however, was that one elderly general (Suleiman is 74) replacing another even more elderly former general-turned-president is hardly a sign of renaissance, but of old habits persisting. That problem will be dealt with in due course, and Suleiman is unlikely to last long, but it is a critically important move that makes it easier for Mubarak to step aside soon.

The third key development Sunday was the announcement by the speaker of parliament that the existing make-up of the body would be reviewed on the basis of hundreds of challenges that citizens presented against some of parliamentarians elected in the elections last November and December in which the ruling National Democratic Party took 81 percent of seats. For the speaker to announce this marks a stunning admission of institutional illegitimacy in the organs of state that have been captured and degraded by the total control of the NDP and the security agencies that it represents.

The fourth important event Sunday was the announcement by members of the Egyptian judges association that they support the demands of the demonstrators. Than such an announcement was made represents a critically important convergence of the demonstrators’ demands for the end of the Mubarak regime with the commitment to the rule of law that the judges represent. The judges were one of the few institutions of governance in Egypt that challenged the regime in recent years and also maintained the trust of the citizenry.

The fifth sign of imminent democratization in Egypt was the announcement Sunday that the major opposition movements had formed The National Coalition for Change, and appointed Mohamed ElBaradei to negotiate a transition to more representative and democratic rule with Mubarak’s government. The Muslim Brotherhood, the largest opposition movement, will now work with secular parties and nongovernmental organizations that have challenged Mubarak without success for decades. The coalition is important because it provides a leadership mechanism essential for the armed forces to have confidence in permitting a transition.

This combination of events indicates that the days of Hosni Mubarak are numbered, but the challenge ahead is not only about making a smooth transition to a more democratic system of governance. It is about re-legitimizing the entire structure of government and the exercise of power. This process started in Tunisia, is redefining Egypt, and will slowly percolate throughout the entire region.

Rami G. Khouri is published twice weekly by THE DAILY STAR.