By Nasser Arrabyee

After more than eight months of rival protests, Yemen is getting closer and closer to either a civil war or – at least – the failure to create a democratic state that would achieve the aspirations of Yemenis.
Two weeks ago, a near all-out war erupted when opposition protesters decided to take what they called “revolutionary action” and control the government offices by force in the Yemeni capital Sanaa. About 60 protesters were killed and hundreds wounded, including soldiers and security people, during three days of fierce confrontations in the heart of Sanaa between troops who had defected, supported by opposition armed tribesmen, and government forces also supported by loyal armed tribesmen. A fragile truce sponsored by a visiting United Nations envoy was reached on Tuesday, Sept. 20.

Three main groups (or rather three persons) were and are behind the political conflict, with all opposition and ruling parties and protesters in the streets divided among these three figures.

These men are the current President Ali Abdullah Saleh, defected general Ali Muhsin al-Ahmar, and billionaire tribal leader Hamid al-Ahmar (no relation to Ali Muhsin). All three men are from the same tribal confederation, Hashid, Yemen’s most powerful, and Saleh and Muhsin are cousins from the same village and the same extended family.

Muhsin has been the second most powerful military commander during Saleh’s 33-year rule. But about six years ago when Saleh’s eldest son, Ahmad, started to build his own army as the commander of the Republican Guards, Muhsin’s power started to decline. Almost the same thing happened to the smart, ambitious businessman Hamid al-Ahmar, who felt that Ahmad Saleh had begun to control and obstruct his large international commercial deals and political ambitions.

When the two men began to sense that Saleh was preparing the way for his son to succeed him, they separately decided to prevent that from happening. In 2006, when Saleh won the presidential elections over Hamid’s candidate, Faisal Bin Shamlan, Hamid threatened to lead a popular revolution against Saleh. Ali Muhsin, on the other hand, waged six unsuccessful wars against the Shiite rebels, the Houthis, in the northern province of Saada. Lately, the two men ignored a world-supported proposal to end the eight-month crisis and turned to war or “revolutionary action” to overthrow Saleh by force, despite the arrival of two international envoys to defuse the conflict.

United Nations envoy Jamal bin Omar and head of the six-nation Gulf Cooperation Council, Abdul Latif al-Zayani, arrived only to see bloodshed and hear explosions in the capital Sanaa almost around the clock.Both of them were a little bit late. They were supposed to arrive before the outbreak of fighting to help the conflicting Yemeni parties reach an agreement on a mechanism previously suggested by Bin Omar for implementing a Saudi-led GCC deal and transferring power from Saleh through democratic elections. The war erupted while the opposition leaders and the ruling party were in talks about a decree issued earlier this month by Saleh to his deputy, preparing to elect a new president by the end of this year.Ali Muhsin and Hamid al-Ahmar were not directly involved in the talks because Hamid is officially only a member of the Islamist opposition party and Ali Muhsin is a military commander. The two men subsequently felt that they had become less important, especially after the arrival of the two international envoys. Speaking arrogantly, through his satellite television station, Hamid said that the two envoys “must leave” the country immediately if they sought to bring Yemenis back to dialogue. As for Ali Muhsin, his troops have been in direct confrontation with Saleh’s forces in many streets around the sit-in square at the gate of Sanaa University for the first time since Muhsin defected last March.

In a secret document leaked to the media recently, Hamid al-Ahmar asked Ali Muhsin to arm 3,000 young men from among the protesters to protect the “revolutionary end” demonstrations that began on Sept. 18 and led to the current armed clashes. In May, accompanied by his armed tribesmen and 10 brothers, Hamid himself led a two-week war against Saleh’s forces around his palace in the Hasaba area, in which about 150 people from both sides were killed.

Saudi King Abdullah Bin Abdul Aziz then imposed a truce on both sides after Saleh arrived in Riyadh for treatment from injuries he suffered in a failed June 3 assassination attempt, which Hamid al-Ahmar and Ali Muhsin were accused of being behind.

Both Saudi Arabia and the United States are doing their best to contain the situation and stop the seemingly uncontrollable war between the two armies and armed supporters of both sides. In a statement, the U.S. Embassy in Sanaa called upon all parties to exercise restraint and refrain from further violence. “We reject actions that undermine productive efforts under way to achieve a political resolution to the current crisis,” said the statement. For his part, the Saudi king, who met Saleh in Riyadh shortly before the president’s return to Yemen, has expressed support for Yemen’s security and stability and unity.

Although the opposition currently is publically refusing any dialogue or initiatives and insists only on what it calls “revolutionary action and end,” its leaders have been involved in the talks now under way despite the conflict. “Talks are still going on with all parties, and a solution will be reached in less than a week,” said a senior official involved in the talks. “There will be no civil war. What’s happening now is still under control and is meant to create good negotiations [positions] for some parties,” the official said on condition of anonymity.

Independent protesters, however, say they have been squeezed out by artillery and tanks firing between the major players. “We have no room now in this war. Our revolution was peaceful before Hamid and Ali Muhsin kidnapped it,” said the leading independent protester Najib Abdul Rahman as he fled explosions near his tent in the sit-in square in Sanaa on Sept. 19. “Our revolution will never succeed as long as these three big guys are still here. They all should leave,” Abdul Rahman added. From the look of things, however, they have different plans.

Nasser Arrabyee is a Yemeni journalist and writer. This commentary first appeared at bitterlemons-international.org, an online newsletter, and has been slightly updated.