FRI 29 - 3 - 2024
 
Date: Jan 5, 2011
 
Troubling trends in this Arab new year

By Rami G. Khouri
Wednesday, January 05, 2011


The start of a new year is always a timely moment to look back and ahead. That exercise in the current state of the Arab world is a painful one. I would point out five, mostly troubling, trends from 2010 that will probably define and plague the Middle East for the year ahead.


First, the brutal attacks against Christians in Iraq and Egypt reflect the work of a small minority of fanatical criminals, and do not represent the views of the Muslim majority in the Arab world.


Yet they do fall into a wider pattern of de-pluralisation, and steady polarization and compartmentalization, of Arab society, whether the populations in question are Christians, Kurds, Palestinians, Assyrians, Shiites, Sunnis or other distinct groups that increasingly live among their own rather than co-exist in mixed communities.


This major failure of the modern Arab world reflects the weaknesses of both the state-building endeavor of the past three generations as well as the inability of majorities among all communities to stop the ravages committed by small minority militants among them. In other words Arab state and society have both proved lacking. 


Second, the referendum in southern Sudan this weekend is expected to result in a strong majority vote for the South’s secession from Sudan and the creation of a new independent state. This will mark a historic moment in the history of the modern Arab world that at once pursues the de-pluralisation mentioned above, and also represents a rare instance of redefining the state frontiers left behind by European colonial powers last century. This occurs in the wake of decades of warfare that has resulted in 4-5 million displaced Sudanese and as many as 2 million dead, alongside Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir’s indictment for crimes against humanity by the International Criminal Court. 


Third, developments in Sudan should be seen as positive if they turn out to be a peaceful exercise in self-determination by the South Sudanese. The outcome is also significant for what it may portend for other parts of the Arab world, where statehood often continues to be brittle. It is evident from places like Palestine, Iraq, Lebanon, Somalia and Yemen that the Arab world faces serious challenges in holding together individual countries under a single national leadership that commands universal respect, legitimacy and allegiance.


Other Arab countries that do not face such internal strains usually do so because of the strong security measures of a highly centralized state, which largely drain the concept of citizenship of much if its freedoms, rights and vitality. The choice between a fractured state and a police state is not a very pleasant one for the ordinary Arab citizen, but it looms increasingly as the unfortunate reality for most Arabs. 

 

Fourth, the transformation of the once localized Arab-Israeli nationalist conflict into the fulcrum of a much wider regional confrontation with strong religious overtones bodes ill for the region in the years ahead, if current trends persist unchanged. The Arab-Israeli conflict now anchors a much more violent and complex standoff that sees some Arab states (notably Syria), Iran and powerful Arab Islamist resistance movements like Hamas and Hizbullah working together to repel not only Israeli territorial aggression, but what they see as wider American-Israeli hegemonic ambitions in the Arab-Islamic Middle East.


The narrow competing claims of Palestinians and Israelis in a small corner of the region have now expanded and been transformed into a regional and quasi-global existential battle among powerful actors who seem prepared to fight to the finish. Large regional and global conflicts will now more easily find local proxies to wage the battle, while local feuds will often escalate quickly into more fierce and intractable conflicts because of the association with foreign actors.


And fifth, the continuing lack of credible, democratic, and pluralistic domestic political life in the Arab world is a chronic and probably growing source of the core societal and state-level weaknesses that result in the four problematic trends mentioned above. Domestic governance systems in the Arab world seem peculiarly impervious to evolution and advancement. Several elections held in recent months in some countries – notably Egypt, Jordan and Bahrain – confirm that electoral politics is not a serious arena for policy changes or power-sharing in the Arab world. Civil society and electoral, parliamentary politics provide limited means for gauging the citizenry’s sentiments, grievances and aspirations, but not for translating these phenomena into government policies.


Measures like Yemen’s parliamentary vote last week to allow the president to remain in office for life only accentuate the shallow, hollow state of domestic political governance systems.


These unfortunate realities will be difficult to change quickly, but they are also impossible to endure endlessly. This year is likely to see them all persist, until some group of Arab citizens reaches its breaking point and decides to change this troubling script.

 

Rami G. Khouri is published twice weekly by THE DAILY STAR.


The views and opinions of authors expressed herein do not necessarily state or reflect those of the Arab Network for the Study of Democracy
 
Readers Comments (0)
Add your comment

Enter the security code below*

 Can't read this? Try Another.
 
Inside:
Why Algeria will not go Egypt's way
When revolutionary euphoria subsides: Lessons from Ukraine
A letter from the Cedar Revolution to the Nile Revolution
Mubarak, save Egypt and leave
Barack Obama sees Egypt, but remembers Indonesia
Just changing generals is not freedom
Egypt’s Youth are Responsible for Defending their Revolution from Those who Would Climb upon It
Can Lebanon kill its own tribunal?
Egypt's future in Egyptian hands
Social media are connecting Arab youths and politicians
The Mediterranean between sunny skies and clouds of pessimism
For the West, act of contrition time
Why Arabs have airbrushed Lebanon out
The Tunisian experience is likely to mean evolution in Morocco
Can Egypt's military become platform for political change?
Lost generations haunt Arab rulers
Democracy: not just for Americans
For better or worse, Arab history is on the move
The Middle East's freedom train has just left the station
Mubarak's only option is to go
Ben Ali's ouster was the start, and Mubarak will follow
Is this a Gdansk moment for the Arabs?
Tunisia may be a democratic beacon, but Islamists will profit
Egypt's battle requires focus
The Arabs' future is young and restless
Hezbollah enters uncharted territory
Exhilarating Arab revolts, but what comes afterward?
Arab rulers' only option is reform
Resisting change fans the flames
To participate or not to participate?
choice decisive for Lebanon
Lebanon typifies Arab political poverty
Between Tunisia’s Uprising and Lebanon’s Tribunal
Lebanon, Between Partnership and Unilateralism
What might Hezbollah face once the trial begins?
In Lebanon, echoes of the Iraq crisis
Is Hezbollah's eye mainly on Syria?
Egypt's Copt crisis is one of democracy
The thrill and consequences of Tunisia for the Arab region
Three Arab models are worth watching
Tunisia riots offer warning to Arab governments
Tunisia has a lesson to teach
Time for Lebanese to re-think stances
Amid stalemate, let negotiations begin!
North Africa at a tipping point
Latifa and Others
The Options Available When Faced with the Failure of Arab Governments
The past Lebanese decade
An independent Egyptian Web site gives women a voice
Yet another Arab president for life
Beyond the STL
Fight the roots of extremism
Fractures prevail as Arabs cap 2010
Truth about injustice will help reduce Muslim radicalization
Christian flight would spell the end for the Arab world
Defining success in the Lebanon tribunal
60% of the Lebanese and 40% of Shiites Support the Choice of Justice
Without remedy, Lebanon faces abyss
The Saudi succession will affect a broad circle of countries
The Arab world faces a silent feminist revolution
The canard of regime change in Syria
Egypt faces a legitimacy crisis following flawed elections
Lebanon: Reform starts with politicians
Human Rights: Three priorities for Lebanon
What's changed?
Monitoring in the dark
Myths about America
Lessons from the fringes
On campus, not all get to vote
'Your credit is due to expire'!
Blood for democracy
Lebanon can solve its own problems
The Janus-like nature of Arab elections
Social Structural Limitations for Democratization in the Arab World
Jordan’s Public Forums Initiative
Islamic Historic Roots of the Term
Copyright 2024 . All rights reserved