Saturday, February 05, 2011

By Christophe de Roquefeuil
Agence France Presse

CAIRO: The wait-and-see stance of the Egyptian military is raising many questions, but underlining one fact: its role will be decisive regardless of how the ongoing turmoil will end.

Political analysts are scrambling to decipher its sphinx-like conduct. Is it complicit in police brutality? Prudent in the face of a fluid situation? Split at the top of its command structure? Just biding its time?
No lack of questions means “plenty of things are moving within the system and the army,” said a Western diplomat on condition of anonymity.

Field Marshall Mohammad Hussein Tantawi, the defense minister who is also deputy prime minister, personally waded into the unrest at Tahrir square Friday, saying said he wanted to “inspect the situation” first-hand.
He did so a day after U.S. Admiral Mike Mullen, chief of the U.S. joint chiefs of staff, said he had been “reassured” by the Egyptian Army’s top brass that troops would not open fire on demonstrators.

In a sign of U.S. support to the military establishment, Mullen cautioned Friday against moves to cut off aid to Egypt due to the unrest.
“I would just caution against doing anything until we really understand what’s going on,” Mullen said in an interview on ABC News.

Mullen was asked about a possible freeze to the vast U.S. military and economic aid to Egypt, a move that Republican Senator John McCain has said is under consideration. “That’s not mine to decide,” said Mullen. “But at the same time, I’d like to understand a little bit more about what’s going on before we took any specifics.”
He said he was working to keep communication channels open with the Egyptian military and expressed hope for an end to violent scenes on the streets.

Imad Gad of the Al-Ahram Center for Political and Strategic Studies in Cairo said the military, which is held in high esteem in Egypt, wanted to keep its options open and was waiting in the wings.

“The army – meaning its headquarters staff, not the intelligence services – does not want to give the impression of intervening, because it wants to take power,” he said. “It is waiting to be asked to do so, in order to be cast as the savior.”

Since the overthrow of the monarchy in 1952, all of Egypt’s presidents – Mohammad Naguib, Gamal Abdel Nasser, Anwar al-Sadat and Mubarak, a former air force commander – have come from the military.

Tewfik Aclimandos, an Egypt specialist at the College de France in Paris, saw a number of potential scenarios.
“It could be a splitting of roles following the ‘bad cop, good cop’ model, with the police and the henchmen of the regime attacking demonstrators while the army gives a false image of neutrality,” he said.

“The army does not know how to go about policing,” he said. The ambivalence of the military could be a reflection of indecision in its own leadership, Aclimandos added. “Although the top does not want to confront the population, it does not want to show the president the door either.”
Then again, the army could be simply trying to “gain time” to negotiate an honorable exit for Mubarak and set the conditions for a transition, he added.

The chief of staff, Sami Annan, in regular contact with his American counterparts in recent days, could emerge unscathed.
Then again, it could be the besuited prime minister, General Ahmad Shafiq, a former aviation minister, who reassures both the military and business establishment.

The key to which way the army will turn could well be in the hands of Washington and the $1.3 billion in military aid it extends to Egypt every year, making it the second largest recipient of U.S. foreign aid after Israel.
The aid has “established a relationship … of great strength” between the U.S. and Egyptian military, Mullen said, describing the military aid as “an investment that’s paid off over a long period of time.”