As people in the Middle East get rid of their dictators and move on to form democratic and modern societies, the Lebanese can only look on and feel silly. March 14 is getting ready to take to the streets on March 14th as an opposition coalition, while March 8 politicians are forming a government and waiting for the upcoming Special Tribunal for Lebanon indictments.

Lebanon is caught outside the historical events that are reshaping the Middle East, and our sectarian “leaders” are at best in denial of what is going on around them, as if the dynamics changing the political map of the whole Middle East will not influence Lebanon. Indeed, political bickering over ministries and insignificant accusations dominate the Lebanese news.

Still controlled by Syria, Iran and Saudi Arabia, all regimes that are still more or less intact, Lebanese leaders do not appear to be considering a plan B in case these regimes are also toppled or forced to radically change. As usual, they tend to react to changes, not act. Hezbollah is still arrogantly holding onto its arms and accuses all those who oppose it of being traitors, and March 14 is holding onto the STL as if justice will change the current balance of power without internal efforts. 

The possibility that the revolution will reach the regimes that have an influence on Lebanon is certainly not farfetched. These countries have witnessed a few significant demonstrations and movements in the past few weeks, especially Iran.
 
Saudi Arabia’s King Abdullah returned to the Kingdom this week with plans and money to appease a discontented population. In Syria, the regime has already taken similar steps and is being very careful not to provoke its people. Iran is a different story, as the economic situation there is deteriorating by the day, making the possibility of a stronger uprising greater.

However, money and small economic reforms will slow down the process but will not stop it because of two factors: Firstly, the region is changing, and the idea of self-determination will eventually reach everyone; and secondly, the uprisings are mainly based on the issues of freedom and liberty. These will have to be met one way or another.
As Iran simmers with opposition protests every Tuesday, Syrians have started to break the wall of fear gradually with spontaneous protests, while Facebook groups call for freedom and criticize the regime of President Bashar al-Assad.

The demonstrations in Iran on February 14 and 20 destroyed the myth that the Green Movement was dead and buried. In 2009, protesters demanded the nullification of the presidential elections that returned Mahmoud Ahmadinejad to power. Today, their rage is aimed at Iran's Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei. Demonstrators chant, "After Mubarak in Egypt and Bin Ali in Tunisia, it is now Sayyed Ali's [Khamenei’s] turn,” or, “Not Gaza, not Lebanon; Tunisia and Egypt and Iran!”

If anything happens in these countries, Lebanon will never be the same. We are intrinsically linked to the Green Movement in Iran and to the people of Syria. Their freedom is our freedom, and their uprisings are ours. We live under the same dictators, represented in Lebanon by Hezbollah and the Syrian proxies. Even in the unfortunate case that these regimes are not toppled right away, their priorities will have to change.

In other words, the peaceful demonstrations that are sweeping the region will lead to democratic states and constitutions. This will certainly undermine Iran, Syria and Hezbollah’s rhetoric, which is based on the idea that violence is the only way to conquer injustice. 

Therefore, the Karbala baggage that shapes the collective memory of Hezbollah’s audience can be replaced with the modern and non-violent spirit of Tahrir Square. The arms issue might become more easily questioned, and state institutions that guarantee reforms could become more of a priority than putting everything on hold in the name of the Resistance.

Politically, if a new government is made up of Hezbollah and pro-Syrian ministers, it would look as if Lebanon is forming one autocratic regime while everyone else in the region is getting rid of theirs. On the popular level, this would look unbearably ridiculous.
This is the good part, but if we don’t do anything to act against it, Lebanon might be thrown in the dumpster of modernity.

The Lebanese have always glorified themselves for being the leaders of democracy and modernity in the region. However, the new dynamics shaping this part of the world could leave Lebanon far behind as it keeps struggling to divide power and riches among sectarian leaders. If this doesn’t change soon, the Lebanese will soon be regarded as the ultimate symbol of corruption and backwardness in the Middle East.

On the other hand, true democracy and reforms might force themselves into Lebanon, at least through the youth. This generation cannot wait any longer to have a better internet, among other basic services; better employment opportunities based on qualifications, not connections; or a civil status law that would make them equal citizens, not followers. When they realize that they are on the worst part of the regional map, something will have to give.

 
Now that March 14 is in opposition, it might be a good idea to take inspiration from the Egyptians, Tunisians, Libyans, Iranians and other people in the region. March 14, 2005 made similar calls to those spreading throughout the Middle East today: Freedom, Democracy and Justice. Maybe now it is time to add further demands: reforms, a civil law, equality, women’s rights and other civil liberties.

Hanin Ghaddar is Managing Editor of NOW Lebanon