Tuesday, February 01, 2011
Editorial

In spite of Hosni Mubarak’s halfhearted stabs at change, it has become clear that he is merely delaying the inevitable, and the only concession that will satisfy protesters is his exit.

The beleaguered 82-year-old president reshuffled a few Cabinet ministers Monday but did not even bother altering the old faces atop the defense, foreign and information ministries. The maneuver was transparently cosmetic and did nothing to mollify the demonstrators, whose numbers appear to be only growing. Indeed, the protesters did not call off plans for a general strike and million-strong marches in Cairo and Alexandria.

All signs and slogans from the masses point in one direction – the end of Mubarak’s reign. The more he concedes, the more he will be asked to concede. He is negotiating from a position of weakness, and his regime is hanging by a thread.

Even his closest foreign allies are backing away from him. The U.S. and Europe are toying with their words, giving every hint possible that they want him to go without telling him explicitly to move on. Of course, Western nations are also hedging their statements in order to save face for almost 30 years of support of a tyrant, and to minimize the damage of tossing him overboard.

The most important variable in the equation remains the reaction of the army. The military has been the ultimate kingmaker in Egypt since 1952, and their decision whether to stand with Mubarak or against him will be crucial to the outcome of the uprising.

The army, moreover, and the demonstrators also need to stay focused on the long term – the people must stamp out the chaos, the looting and the arson, that has marred their reform movement. They also will need to get back to work and work even harder after Mubarak’s departure to build a new Egypt.

The demonstrators – and the world around them – should also be paying close attention to the aftershocks of this crisis. In the wake of Tunisia’s so-called Jasmine Revolution, a number of disaffected Arabs across North Africa and the Gulf have immolated themselves to spark similar revolt. A few hundred protesters have even made themselves heard in the placid sultanate of Oman; larger rallies have taken place – so far – in Algeria, Sudan, Jordan, Morocco and Yemen.

Egypt, as many are now recalling, was once the vanguard of the Arab people and the fulcrum of two continents. Its decline has embodied the ills plaguing nearly the entire region. Formerly proud people have sunk into legions of unemployed, while prices have climbed and corrupt elites have wallowed in luxury. Egypt was approaching the status of a failed state kept afloat by U.S. aid. The people of Egypt – and not only there – want to rise out of poverty and regain their dignity; the first step will be getting rid of their disgraced leaders. Goodbye, Mubarak.