By Adam Entous

WASHINGTON—The U.S. has quietly frozen weapon shipments to Lebanon's
armed forces following the collapse of the country's pro-Western
government in January, underlining growing concerns about Hezbollah's
role there..

The suspension, part of a broader review of U.S. security assistance to
Lebanon, offers a cautionary tale about the uncertain course of secular
revolts sweeping the Middle East, and Washington's limited ability to
influence them. Lebanon's Cedar Revolution of 2005 started with a wave
of popular protests that stirred pro-democracy hopes in the West, much
like the revolts now sweeping the region. But, to the chagrin of the
U.S. and its allies, Hezbollah has emerged stronger rather than
chastened.

The arms freeze was recently approved by Defense Secretary Robert
Gates, but the decision hasn't been publicly announced because of
concerns the disclosure could interfere with delicate internal
negotiations in Lebanon over a new government's makeup and policies.

Defense officials said the U.S. is continuing to provide training and
nonlethal assistance to the Lebanese military, describing the ties that
are active as "robust."

Since 2006, the U.S. has provided more than $720 million in support to
the Lebanese military, including equipment and advanced training.
Between March and October 2010 alone, this support included at least $18
million worth of military equipment and ammunition, including antitank
missiles and launchers. Other shipments were in the pipeline for late
last year and earlier this year but it is unclear what was delivered.

A senior defense official said the Pentagon is now reviewing all U.S.

security assistance to the Lebanese Armed Forces "during this period of
government formation." A second U.S. official said the administration
would base future decisions about security assistance, including whether
to renew deliveries of lethal arms, after assessing the composition and
conduct of the next government.

U.S. lawmakers had moved to block aid to the Lebanese army in August
after a deadly border clash between Israeli and Lebanese units, but the
congressional freeze was only temporary. Congressional aides said new
legislation is likely to be introduced in the coming weeks to cut off
assistance if the next Lebanese government is dominated by Hezbollah.

Hezbollah, a Shiite political and military group shunned by the U.S. as
a terrorist organization, has been Israel's main foe in south Lebanon.
It is backed by Syria and Iran.

Lebanon went through a popular revolt in 2005 following the
assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri, whose son,
Saad Hariri, later became premier. The car bombing was a pivotal event
in Lebanon and led to the end of Syria's 30-year military occupation of
the country.

But early U.S. optimism about the prospect for change "fizzled out,"
one senior U.S. official said, and Hezbollah has steadily expanded its
reach in the country and beyond, sounding alarm bells in the U.S. and
Israel.

The selection in January of a Hezbollah-backed billionaire businessman,
Najib Mikati, as the new prime minister, confirmed the movement's
position as the most powerful military and political force in Lebanon.
Mr. Mikati takes over for Saad Hariri, who enjoyed Western backing as
premier.

Washington's limited ability to influence events in Lebanon spotlights
potential pitfalls of the changes sweeping the region. As countries such
as Tunisia and Egypt grapple with the realities of building new
political institutions after years of autocracy, officials worry whether
any popularly elected governments that emerge will be able to align
themselves as closely with Washington's interests.

Defense officials, however, say they want to keep some level of support
for the Lebanese armed forces. Though weakened, officials say, the
Lebanese armed forces are likely the only state institution with a
chance of maintaining stability.

Officials with Lebanon's embassy in Washington had no immediate
comment.

In talks with their U.S. counterparts, Israeli officials pushed to
suspend arms transfers to Lebanon "out of fear that [arms] would end up
in the wrong hands and eventually be used against us," an Israeli
official said.

According to new Israeli intelligence estimates, Hezbollah has built as
many as 550 bunkers in southern Lebanon, including 100 storage units
holding rockets and missiles. Hezbollah has an estimated 40,000 to
60,000 rockets, far more than during the 2006 Lebanon war, Israeli
officials say.

In recent weeks, Hezbollah has sought to inject itself into the popular
revolutions now sweeping the Arab world. The group has thrown its
support behind protests by fellow Shi'ite demonstrators in Bahrain and
has criticized Arab states for backing Bahrain's rulers while supporting
the rebels in Libya.