Tuesday, March 08, 2011

EDITORIAL

As dramatic events in the Arab world continue to unfold this spring, one frequent topic bandied about by pundits is the impact of the Arab upheavals on the Islamic Republic of Iran.

The most striking impression one gets from all the chatter about Tehran is the boundless ignorance of too many of the would-be cognoscenti unspooling ready-made theories about the direct results that Tahrir (Liberation) Square will bring about in Tehran. For the most part, the political leadership and the publics of the U.S. and European nations receive their wisdom about Iran from think tanks located in the West, in articles penned by commentators sitting in Washington or London – and for the most part these authors have no idea how the institutions of the Islamic Republic function or the subtleties of the varied constituencies among Iran’s population of more than 70 million.

The truth about the Iranian regime is that it has a coherent and long-term agenda for expanding its influence throughout the region, and it pursues that agenda single-mindedly. Regardless of how one feels about the relative qualities of that influence, it must be granted that Tehran has done a remarkable job of achieving so many of its objectives in the 32 years since the clerical regime emerged – and instantly became a bogeyman to many Arab and Western countries.

In 1979 few would have imagined that the Islamic Republic would forge close ties with Turkey or the Hamas party ruling Gaza. In addition to the strategic alliance with Syria, Iran has also gained major influence in Iraq, and it plays a key role in Bahrain and Yemen, aside from its historical ties to the UAE.

In Lebanon we know the intimate relationship between Hezbollah and Iran, but no one should fall under the mistaken impression that Tehran’s sway depends solely on the Shiite faith, or even the propagation of political Islam. The Islamic Republic has significant economic interests, and it has also built its standing and alliances partly on opposition to Israel.

The Arab popular uprisings riveting the world’s attention are leading Tehran to accelerate the implementation of its agenda. If Iranian leaders feel any trepidation at the collapse of the Egyptian and Tunisian autocracies, they are hiding it well, for they continue to project confidence.

In their eyes, their only true rival is Washington; this region, they reckon, can be managed. Still, reality is that all actors here must wait and see how events develop in Egypt; Iran and Turkey were able to become regional powers partially because Cairo had languished in a coma for decades. The turmoil in Egypt could lead to Cairo again seizing a pivotal role in the region. However, any aspirant for power in the Middle East these days will have to deal first with Iran.