There is wariness in the March 14 camp regarding the Egyptian revolution, while there is exultation in the March 8 camp. Both sides have arrived at these positions for the wrong reasons.

For March 14, the concern is limited to the fall of a “moderate” regime, as opposed to a “resisting” one. There was little attention paid to the fact that all these aging regimes are liable to fall. There was little note taken of the fact that the rise of the voice of Egyptian patriotism, rather than nationalist and Islamist ideologies, is cheering news for Lebanese patriots.  Similarly, it went unnoticed that the overthrow of a security regime is an action recalling closely the actions of March 14, and that the public square and peaceful methods were once again used to overthrow a security regime. The March 14 camp did not notice that Hosni Mubarak’s policy toward elections was the same policy that prevented March 14 from activating the two electoral victories it won, or that the regional spread of an atmosphere that is more respectful of politics, the constitution and elections, and less dependent on weapons and security, is a gain for March 14. As for March 14 circles afraid of the ascendance of the Muslim Brotherhood, it has escaped them in that the Western and democratic embrace of the Egyptian revolution is the foremost factor preventing such a possibility.

The same applies, albeit in reverse, to the March 8 environment: attention is limited to the fact that the regime that fell is a “moderate” regime and not a “resisting” one. The self-deception reaches its peak with Iranian Supreme Leader Khamenei and President Ahmadinejad: they branded the Egyptian revolution as Islamic while banning Iranian opposition protests!

The March 8 camp does not notice that the Egyptian army that is safeguarding the hoped-for transition to democracy is the same army that sponsored Camp David. Nor do they notice that Gaza was not one of the revolution’s slogans, or that hostility to America was not heard in the revolution. They also fail to see that the revolution, with its strength, mobilization and expressive forces, is completely unconnected to the ideologies that March 8 is associated with, and unconnected to the memory of struggle that March 8 feeds on. They do not notice that Egypt’s return to the region, carrying democracy and peace, will diminish the weight of other forces (among them Syria and Iran) whose roles had grown when the Egyptian role receded. Nor do they see that increased pressure on Israel to restrain its quarrelsomeness and aid in establishing a Palestinian state will cut off the road for the forces of “resistance” and their propaganda.

The prevalence of these miscalculations indicates the structural deficiencies in both camps. March 14, faced with a great event, appeared dull, foolish and reactionary. March 8 lied and equivocated.