Hazem Saghiyeh

Honestly, and regardless of political controversy, Hezbollah has to change its calculations so that the whole country does not burn one way or another. In fact, every person with a project calculates benefits and losses, weak points and strong ones, before initiating or continuing the project.
Such behavior saves this person and his country from heading to suicide.

In this sense, Hezbollah is locked in a conflict today with the “international community” against a backdrop of the indictment and the matter of handing over those accused. Hezbollah is also pitted in an ongoing conflict against Israel and the forces supporting it, not to mention a conflict of an unprecedented intensity with a major Lebanese community and large segments of other communities. Meanwhile, its relations with the Sunni Arab world and many countries in Africa and Latin America have turned sour.

In contrast, its main and direct support, the Syrian regime, has its own concerns to manage and is unable to support it. Its second key ally, the Iranian regime, cannot reach Lebanon without Syria as a bridge, not to mention the political and economic trouble Iran is facing, which limit the regime’s support capability. Furthermore, Qatar, which undertook an essential share of sponsorship and financing of the post-2006 July War reconstruction, now has other plans. This has deprived Hezbollah and its allies of the immensely influential media voice provided by Qatar’s Al-Jazeera channel. This goes without mentioning that the inhabitants of the South, who have been through a lot so far, are unlikely to be ready to bear the potential consequences of major radical or struggle options.

This situation does not suit those who are in it at all. Any political side that does not perform such calculations and makes such a review is acting stupidly against its own interest and that of others. Therefore, the most moderate voices within the Shia community would better seek to initiate dialogue with Hezbollah not for the sake of annoyance or competition, but rather to stress the need for a review that cannot be ignored by those seeking to exploit sectarian polarization. The same demand for dialogue holds true for non-Shia political forces, including top state positions and forces that are known for their opposition to Hezbollah. Indeed, this is a chance for them to rise above petty politics and start restructuring civil peace.
These are essential roles everyone is urgently called upon to play. However, this all remains useless if Hezbollah is still in the same mood as the one expressed by the latest address of its secretary-general!

This article is a translation of the original, which appeared on the NOW Arabic site on Monday August 22, 2011