Cagil M. Kasapoglu

Turkey’s growing impatience toward next-door neighbor Syria over Damascus’ failure to implement reforms has not only shaken the country’s reputation as a mediator in the Middle East, but also recalls an event 13 years ago that brought both states to the brink of war.
In October 1998, Turkey continuously condemned Syria for aiding the outlawed PKK (Kurdish Worker’s Party) and sheltering its leader within its borders. Turkey deployed its army to the countries’ shared border. The tension was eased by the Adana Agreement, signed by both parties when then-Syrian President Hafez al-Assad agreed to cease all support for the PKK and expel its leader.
Although relations between the two countries have been amicable for the last decade, the recent government crackdown against the uprising in Syria and the stream of Syrian refugees flowing into Turkey has caused it to change its diplomatic tune.

“Turkey has invested in President Bashar al-Assad’s government over the last decade and helped it gain international legitimacy despite the West’s isolation policy [against Damascus],” said Turkish researcher Oytun Orhan from the Center for Middle Eastern Strategic Studies in Ankara. But Turkey has been disappointed to see the Syrian regime’s refusal to implement necessary reforms and accused the Assad government “of obeying Iran rather than Turkey,” Orhan said.

According to Orhan, though, despite Turkey’s irritation with Assad, it cannot cut diplomatic relations off so as “not to risk another Iraq on its borders.”
“Turkey can also not envision an alternative to Assad,” noted Orhan, adding that Turkey prefers a smooth and peaceful transition to democracy in Syria that includes the current regime.

To this end, Turkish and Syrian diplomats have been engaging in frequent visits, which resumed last week when Syria’s Assistant Vice President Hassan Turkmani met with Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan. “It affirmed the mutual confidence between the two friendly countries… We have carried our part of the reform program and will complete the other steps soon,” stated Turkmani after the visit.
Although Assad’s speech this week declaring a timetable for a reform package stirred Turkish hopes, it did not include the content of the diplomatic meetings between both parties.

“The [disappointing] outcome of Assad’s previous pledges of a reform timetable destroys the credibility of the new pledges,” said Fehim Tastekin, a columnist for Turkish daily newspaper Radikal. Within five years Assad lost the credibility he gained when he came to power in 2000, Tastekin added, and all his new initiatives are just “efforts to carry on with the regime with little gestures.”
Tastekin believes that some types of reform will be applied, however, “It would be exaggerated optimism to say that they will give birth to a real democratic and free system,” he said.

“Turkey’s engagement in the Middle East as a mediator will be brought into question if the Syrian regime fails to respond to the public’s needs,” Tastekin said, though “If Turkey achieves establishing order in Syria, then it will have a significant contribution to the future of Turkey’s foreign policy agenda.”
Turkey’s main fear is seeing a civil war in Syria and an international military operation taking place, which would “cause a regional catastrophe for Turkey,” Tastekin said.

In order to avoid such a catastrophe, Turkey has not only engaged the government, but has “applied an engagement policy toward the Syrian people through economic and cultural means,” according to Turkish Foreign Ministry spokesperson Selcuk Unal.

“While the West has criticized the Syrian regime, we backed Assad for reforms,” Unal said. However, he criticized the Syrian regime’s inability to implement the reforms and use violence against its own people. “We are not going to stand firm along the deliberate faults of the [Assad] regime.”

Unal noted Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu’s change in rhetoric last month in his statement “urging Syria to deliver reforms that would constitute ‘shock therapy’ to the country.”
“Turkey first engaged through diplomatic meetings, then revealed the phone calls done on the diplomatic level, and now the language has hardened. But we believe the regime has still got the chance to turn in a positive direction,” Unal added.
While the diplomatic efforts are being kept alive by Turkish authorities in the hope of bringing a stable democracy to Syria, the influx of around 10,000 Syrian refugees since the uprising began in March has proved a major hurdle to talks.

Turkish officials’ unwillingness to let journalists interact with the refugees and their efforts to prevent the refugees from protesting against Assad’s regime while in Turkey prove Ankara’s commitment to diplomatic engagement. But the refugees seem to expect more than that.

“We want to go back to a Syria that will not host Assad as our president,” said a Syrian refugee named Esma in a phone conversation with NOW Lebanon. “We thank the Turkish government for having us, but Assad is no longer our president. How can Turkey help us get rid of him?” she said.

Esma said that the growing number of refugees in the Yayladagi camp is causing obstacles for aid to be delivered effectively. While Turkey’s Red Crescent is preparing a fifth camp along the Turkish-Syrian border, enough foreign aid is not being allowed in to cope with the influx, which also concerns Esma.
 
“Why does Turkey not accept the aid of foreign organizations or foreign countries?” she said. “Will the Turkish Red Crescent be able to host us all?”

Cagil M. Kasapoglu is a reporter for Radikal Turkish Daily