Hanin Ghaddar

Syrian president Bashar al-Assad delivered a speech that does not rise to the Syrian people’s expectations and courage. He spoke of upcoming reforms and dialogue, pretending that he is still in control and is still loved by many Syrian citizens. The first wave of reactions inside Syria were of more anger and an unambiguous call for him to step down.
The Syrian people just want to topple the regime. As for reforms, they believe they can implement them after he’s gone. The only card left in Assad’s hands is Lebanon.

The Syrian regime has recently become more cornered than ever, not only because of sanctions and international isolation, but because it has lost two of its close allies: Qatar and Turkey. Because of this, Lebanon could not be left with a government vacuum any longer; Syria needed a stronger backyard. Now the Syrian regime and Hezbollah control everything in Lebanon, formally and legitimately.

Last week, a Syrian-Hezbollah government was born in Lebanon. Suddenly, all the bickering over shares and ministries that stalled the cabinet formation for six months vanished when the go-ahead came from Damascus. With March 14 already out of the way, it was easy to manage the pro-Syrian politicians’ greedy grabs for more power, and a government was thrown together in a matter of two days.

The formation of the Lebanese government and its mission shed light on the Syrian regime’s desire to maintain its presence in Lebanon the same way it is dealing with the uprising at home: via confrontation and brutality. With Lebanon in his pocket, Assad thinks he still has at least one regional card with which he could bargain with the international community, as Hezbollah is still armed and strong in Lebanon, and constitutes a major threat to Israel.
In his speech, Assad outlined the next phase of his regime’s plan to contain the Syrian revolution. He spoke of reforms and pretended to have listened to the people’s demands.
He probably thinks that speaking of reforms with more details might make him a bit more credible in front of the international community, which certainly fears continuous violence and chaos in Syria. However, the Syrian people long ago stopped believing their president.

Many Syrian activists and demonstrators feel that such a proposition is too late now. The main demand now has gone beyond the original call for reform; the Syrian people want to topple the regime. 
Even if certain reforms were implemented, what happened since Assad first promised them makes any talk or action in that direction futile. Assad and his officers have killed and tortured thousands, including children, and the anger in the streets has escalated to a whole new level now. For those who have been witnessing pure horror every day for the past three months, the president is not qualified to be president anymore.

Assad’s speech should not be met with any serious consideration. But before reacting, and out of respect for those who died since the last time Assad spoke, we must wait to see the Syrian people’s reactions first.
In any case, the signs are not promising. The mere fact that the Lebanese government was formed to include only pro-Syrian politicians who have already started their confrontational strategy before the ministerial statement is even drafted means that Assad does not mean well.

Any good intentions or genuine desire for reforms would have led to a different cabinet in Lebanon, one that would respect Lebanon’s fragile democratic system and the results of the last parliamentary elections. Such a cabinet would have apologized for the “black-shirts coup” against Saad Hariri’s fallen government instead of putting MP Michel Aoun at the front to plainly tell Hariri never to come back to Lebanon.

On the contrary, this government was tailored to protect the Syrian regime and defend its brutality, in addition to taking a confrontational stance against international resolutions, including the Special Tribunal for Lebanon and its impending indictment. It is a case of extreme schizophrenia that the Assad regime promised reforms in Syria while forming a confrontational government in Lebanon.

In any case, no matter what the Lebanese government was tailored to achieve, it has come at a very bad time. Lebanon feels today as if the Syrian regime is back, with one detail that makes a big difference: The Syrian regime is not as strong in Syria as it is in Lebanon. This time, the Lebanese might not be able to remove Assad’s grip over this country or topple his government; the Syrian people will.

Hanin Ghaddar is managing editor of NOW Lebanon