By Rami G. Khouri

Some people have found it difficult to reconcile a few seemingly contradictory trends that have become evident during the course of the past 16 months of uprisings across the Arab region.

Even many Arabs wonder whether, for instance, Egypt will adopt genuine democracy or persist in military rule, or if the rule of autocrats across the region will simply be replaced by the rule of Islamists, militias or tribes in various Arab countries. Part of this discussion reflects the fact that the Arab countries are different from each other, and each transition from the old autocracies to something better and more democratic will have its moments of forward progress and the occasional regression or stall.

More important is the fact that people’s views of public issues are rarely black and white. They tend to be nuanced and evolve over time. This runs against the grain of those in the Middle East and abroad who prefer to deal with the Arab world as a homogenous region whose people share common, static traits and thoughts. Just as political conditions are changing rapidly in transitioning countries such as Egypt and Libya, so do people’s attitudes evolve in response to what they see happening around them, and especially to how they judge their own well-being in light of the changing circumstances.

One new instrument that has been available to us in the Arab world for some years now is public opinion polling. A recently concluded poll across much of the region by the Doha-based Arab Center for Research and Policy Studies sheds useful light on some of the main issues defining the current transitions and people’s attitudes to them. It is an important piece of work because it captures public sentiments at a critical moment – the poll of over 16,000 people was conducted in 12 Arab countries in 2011 – and offers a more nuanced, thus accurate, appreciation of sentiments on issues like religion and politics, Iran, Israel and Palestine, and the reasons for the demand for these democratic transitions that are trying to take root in some countries.

In general, the poll found strong majority support across the region for overthrowing dictators (70 and 80 percent supported the revolutions in Tunisia and Egypt), and also provided important insights into why so many Arabs hold this view. Respondents explained the revolutions as reflecting popular resistance to dictatorships, monopolization of power, curtailment of political and civil liberties, lack of justice and equality, and also economic stresses.

Significantly, respondents were not just echoing slogans in demanding or supporting democracy in their countries, but rather overwhelmingly (81 percent) were able to suggest specific elements of democratic rule that they desired.

They mostly defined democracy in political terms, but also included elements such as social justice, development, security and stability, and economic rights. A strong majority of two-thirds rejected the idea that democracy should be curtailed or rejected for the sake of economic stability and security.

Democratic credentials are not everything, however, as just over one-third of respondents said they would not accept the coming to power through democratic means of a party to whose views they objected (even if 53 percent said they would accept this).

When it comes to the interplay between religion and politics, those surveyed clearly supported religiosity in the private realm but saw public activity as being guided mainly by non-religious factors. Forty-seven percent thought religion was a private matter that should be separated from public life and decision-making, while 38 percent disagreed. Two-thirds thought religious figures should not interfere in politics.

Public confidence in government and state institutions varied widely, from a high 77 percent that expressed confidence in the armed forces, to around half who trusted the police and intelligence agencies or the government, and just 36 percent with confidence in parliament. The sense of alienation that ordinary citizens feel from their governments was also captured in the finding that just 31 percent of respondents felt their national economic policies took citizens’ views into consideration, and just 34 percent felt this was the case with foreign policies.

The poll found that a strong majority (71 percent) felt Arabs shared traits making them a single nation, while half said that individual countries had different distinguishing traits. Most Arabs polled (73 percent) said Israel and the United States were the main security threats to the Arab world, with Iran in third place at just 5 percent. Eighty-four percent thought the Palestine issue united all Arabs, not only Palestinians. Only 21 percent supported the peace agreements Egypt and Jordan signed with Israel, and 84 percent rejected official Arab recognition of Israel.

These snapshots of Arab sentiments across the region offer useful insights into the issues that drive public opinion. They also should help us better understand the issues we should keep our eyes on as we continue to follow the course of events across the region.

Rami G. Khouri is published twice weekly by THE DAILY STAR.